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Recent economic data and profit-taking have impacted Bitcoin's price, causing a dip from its weekly high. However, onchain data provides insights into potential future movements. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) at 0.987 indicates that short-term investors are selling at a loss, a scenario that historically precedes price recoveries. Other cycle indicators like Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) and the Puell Multiple suggest that the market has not yet reached its peak, and the current correction might not signify the end of the bullish cycle. Analyst Mac_D from CryptoQuant notes that as short-term investors face losses, it often presents better opportunities for accumulation. This suggests that buying at current price levels could be beneficial for those looking to enter the BTC market, especially if there is further price decline. The market's reaction to upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data could also influence Bitcoin's trajectory, with strong numbers potentially leading to interest rate hikes, which are generally negative for risk assets like Bitcoin.
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Former Congressman Wiley Nickel emphasized the necessity of enacting crypto regulations through Congress to ensure lasting change, rather than relying on executive orders which can be easily reversed by future administrations. In an interview with Cointelegraph, Nickel highlighted the importance of bipartisan efforts to pass comprehensive crypto legislation, referencing the instability seen with SEC actions under Gary Gensler. Recent legislative activities include Rep. Tom Emmer's reintroduction of a bill banning CBDC, Senator Cynthia Lummis' Bitcoin Act of 2025, and efforts by Rep. Byron Donalds to codify President Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve into law. Additionally, the House of Representatives voted to repeal an IRS rule affecting decentralized finance platforms. Democrat Rep. Ro Khanna expressed optimism about passing comprehensive crypto regulation, including stablecoin and market structure bills, by 2025. These actions underscore a growing recognition in Congress of the need for clear, permanent crypto regulations.
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Bitcoin experienced a notable surge, reaching two-week highs on March 20, driven by rumors of an impending major update to US cryptocurrency policy. This news came alongside a Federal Reserve meeting where officials decided to keep interest rates unchanged, with hints of potential cuts by the end of 2025. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on inflation easing and a cautious policy stance provided relief to both Bitcoin and US stocks, with the S&P 500 gaining around 1% and adding $500 billion in market cap. The market's reaction was further fueled by expectations of a policy shift from quantitative tightening to easing, as suggested by former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. Additionally, traders were particularly focused on potential changes in US crypto policy, with whispers of an announcement expected on March 21. This anticipation was set against the backdrop of President Trump's recent executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, although markets remained relatively cool to this news initially.
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Aleksei Andriunin, the Russian founder of the Gotbit market maker platform, has entered into a plea agreement with Massachusetts federal prosecutors, agreeing to forfeit approximately $23 million in Tether USDt and USDC. This deal comes after Andriunin was charged with manipulating cryptocurrency markets through Gotbit, which was accused of orchestrating a widespread market manipulation scheme from 2017 to 2024. The plea includes guilty pleas to three counts of conspiracy to commit wire fraud and market manipulation. Despite the agreement, it does not bind the US Attorney General or other prosecuting entities, and the court is not obligated to follow the sentencing guidelines proposed by the prosecutors. Andriunin was extradited to the US in October 2024 following his arrest in Portugal and has since appeared in a Boston federal court where he remains detained. The case also involves other Gotbit employees, highlighting the broader implications of the company's activities in the cryptocurrency market.
