December US Jobs Report to Cap Year of Moderate Hiring

Key Points

  • US employers likely moderated hiring in December, with payrolls increasing by 160,000, signaling a year of healthy yet slowing job growth.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings growth cooling slightly, indicating a labor market not fueling inflation.
  • Federal Reserve officials are expected to maintain their current stance on interest rates, influenced by a durable economy and gradual inflation dissipation.

Summary

US employers are anticipated to have moderated their hiring in December, concluding a year where job growth was healthy but showed signs of slowing down. According to Bloomberg's survey of economists, payrolls increased by 160,000, which would average monthly job growth near 180,000 for 2024. This pace, while lower than the previous three years, still reflects a robust labor market. The unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.2%, with wage growth cooling slightly, suggesting that the labor market is not contributing significantly to inflation pressures. The Federal Reserve is likely to continue its cautious approach to interest rate adjustments, influenced by a resilient economy and a slow decline in inflation. Investors are keen on the minutes from the Fed's December meeting for insights into policymakers' considerations on rate cuts. Additionally, upcoming data on job openings and other economic indicators will provide further context on the labor market's health and direction.

yahoo
January 4, 2025
Stocks
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