Get your house in order, Europe — or face ‘ongoing decline,’ economists warn

Key Points

  • Germany and France, the largest economies in the euro zone, are experiencing political and economic turbulence, with neither having a budget in place for 2025.
  • Economists warn that the lack of growth, fiscal imbalances, and political intransigence could lead to a decline in Europe's standing globally.
  • France faces issues with overspending, with a budget deficit and high debt levels, while Germany struggles with underspending and underinvestment, leading to economic stagnation.
  • The European Central Bank has cut interest rates to stimulate growth, but risks remain tilted to the downside with potential global trade frictions and lower consumer confidence.

Summary

The article discusses the economic and political challenges facing Germany and France, the euro zone's largest economies, as they navigate through a period of significant turbulence without a budget for 2025. Both countries are dealing with different fiscal issues; France with a high budget deficit and debt, and Germany with overly restrictive fiscal policies leading to economic stagnation. The absence of a budget reflects deeper problems like political infighting, which has led to government collapses and upcoming elections. Economists are concerned that without fundamental reforms, Europe could face ongoing economic decline, exacerbated by external factors like the war in Ukraine, rising energy prices, and global trade tensions. The European Central Bank has attempted to mitigate these issues by reducing interest rates, but the outlook remains cautious with potential for further economic challenges. The article highlights the need for both countries to focus on growth-oriented policies to counteract these trends, although structural problems and external pressures continue to pose significant hurdles.

cnbc
January 2, 2025
Stocks
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