Improving Bitcoin price metrics highlight bears’ dwindling confidence in sub-$95K BTC

Key Points

  • Bitcoin's open interest has dropped to a two-month low, indicating limited downside risk for BTC price.
  • Bears have shown reduced appetite for leveraged positions, especially as Bitcoin tested levels below $92,000.
  • The 2-month futures premium stands at 15%, signaling continued conviction from bulls despite recent price weakness.
  • Fiscal standoff risks in the U.S. government could reduce investor risk appetite but enhance Bitcoin's appeal as an ETF hedge.

Summary

Bitcoin has been struggling to maintain prices above $95,000 since late December, with a notable decline in demand for leveraged positions. The open interest in Bitcoin futures has hit a two-month low, suggesting that the potential for significant price drops might be limited. Despite recent liquidations amounting to $470 million for bulls, the bears' reduced activity indicates a lack of confidence in pushing the price below $95,000. The futures premium, which briefly approached neutral levels, has rebounded to 15%, reflecting strong bullish sentiment. Additionally, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the federal debt limit have introduced uncertainty, potentially affecting investor risk appetite. However, this situation might also enhance Bitcoin's appeal as an alternative hedge, especially with the significant investment in Bitcoin ETFs. The current funding rate for perpetual futures remains within a neutral range, further supporting the notion that Bitcoin's price outlook remains positive despite the recent market dynamics.

cointelegraph
January 3, 2025
Crypto
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