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As the year draws to a close, a monumental options expiry event looms on the horizon, set to impact the already highly leveraged crypto market. On Friday at 8:00 UTC, Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange, will see the expiry of 146,000 bitcoin options contracts, valued at nearly $14 billion, marking the largest such event in its history. This expiry represents 44% of the total open interest for all BTC options across different maturities. Additionally, ETH options worth $3.84 billion will also expire, with ETH having dropped nearly 12% to $3,400 since the Fed meeting. The market is poised for potential volatility, with $4 billion worth of BTC options set to expire "in the money," potentially leading to significant market movements. The put-call open interest ratio suggests a bullish bias, but recent market dynamics, including a 10% drop in BTC's value, indicate heightened risk for leveraged positions. The market's outlook appears more bearish for ETH than BTC, with a noticeable decrease in demand for bullish ETH options.
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Treasury yields experienced a slight retreat on Tuesday following a peak in the 10-year yield the previous day. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped by approximately 2 basis points to 4.786%, while the 2-year yield saw a decrease of 1 basis point to 4.392%. This movement comes as investors prepare for the upcoming producer price index (PPI) release, which is expected to show a 0.4% increase in headline figures and a 0.3% rise in core readings, excluding food and energy. The anticipation around these figures is heightened by last week's hotter-than-expected jobs report, which has led to expectations of a slower pace in Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 28-29, with markets currently predicting a high probability of maintaining current rates.
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The U.S. stock market showed mixed results on Monday, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell due to a broad sell-off in technology stocks. The decline in tech stocks was highlighted by significant drops in Nvidia and Palantir, reflecting a broader investor shift towards securing profits from last year's winners and seeking new investment opportunities. This rotation was also influenced by rising borrowing costs in the U.K., which raised concerns about public spending cuts or tax increases. Additionally, Cleveland Cliffs and Nucor are reportedly considering a bid for U.S. Steel, following the blockage of its acquisition by Nippon Steel. Meanwhile, India's inflation slowed, providing potential for rate cuts by the RBI. Quantum computing stocks also faced a downturn after comments from Meta's CEO and Nvidia's CEO suggested that practical applications of the technology are still far off. Despite these shifts, the AI sector remains robust, as evidenced by strong earnings from TSMC and Foxconn, indicating sustained interest in AI-related products.
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Asia-Pacific markets experienced a mostly positive trading session on Tuesday, following a mixed performance on Wall Street where the Dow Jones Industrial Average soared while the Nasdaq Composite slipped due to a rotation out of tech stocks. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index and mainland China's CSI 300 saw significant gains, with the latter marking its largest one-day increase since November 7. Conversely, Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix indices continued their downward trend, marking a four-day losing streak. South Korea's Kospi and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 managed to close higher, breaking their recent losing streaks. Meanwhile, investors are keeping an eye on India's rupee, which hit a record low against the U.S. dollar, and Thailand's upcoming consumer confidence index. In the U.S., the Dow Jones rose significantly, driven by gains in non-tech sectors, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq experienced a decline, reflecting broader market rotations away from technology stocks.
