Russia and Ukraine End Five Decades of Gas Transit to Europe

Key Points

  • Russian gas stopped flowing to Europe via Ukraine after Kyiv refused to allow transit that funds Moscow’s war machine.
  • The stoppage will force central European countries to source more expensive gas, increasing market volatility and reliance on global LNG.

Summary

The cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine marks the end of a significant supply route that has been operational for five decades. This halt, confirmed by both nations, follows the expiration of a key transit deal and Kyiv's refusal to allow any transit that would fund Moscow's war efforts. The impact is particularly felt in central Europe, where countries dependent on these flows must now seek more costly alternatives, exacerbating the region's energy crisis. Gas prices have surged by 50% year-on-year, and the loss of this route, which accounts for 5% of Europe's gas needs, adds to the volatility in the energy market. Russia loses about $6 billion annually from this stoppage, while Ukraine forfeits transit fees and its strategic energy conduit role. The situation leaves Europe more vulnerable to supply disruptions, especially with winter storage depleting rapidly. Despite the immediate lack of a gas shortfall, the long-term implications include increased reliance on global LNG and potential price hikes for European consumers.

Daniel Hornak and Anna Shiryaevskaya
January 1, 2025
Crypto
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