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Goldman Sachs has issued a cautionary note regarding the sustainability of the current equity market rally, highlighting several factors that could precipitate a correction. Peter Oppenheimer, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, points out that the rapid rise in stock prices might already reflect much of the anticipated growth for 2025, potentially leaving little room for further gains without significant new positive developments. He notes that stocks like Nvidia, Palantir, and AMD have experienced significant sell-offs recently, reflecting concerns over high valuations and rising interest rates. Oppenheimer also warns that the high concentration of market value in just a few tech giants like Apple, Microsoft, and Alphabet could lead to broader market instability if any of these companies underperform. Moreover, Goldman's research suggests that maintaining high sales and profit margins over long periods is challenging, setting the stage for potential investor disappointment and subsequent sell-offs. The firm predicts a modest 3% total return for the S&P 500 over the next decade, indicating a cautious outlook for equity returns.
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Nvidia Corp. has voiced strong opposition to forthcoming US chip export restrictions, which are set to be announced before the transition to the Trump administration. These restrictions aim to limit the export of US artificial intelligence chips, particularly targeting countries like China and Russia, by imposing caps on sales both by country and by company. Nvidia's Vice President of Government Affairs, Ned Finkle, criticized the policy, suggesting it would not enhance national security but instead drive global markets towards alternative technologies. The proposed regulations would categorize countries into three tiers, with US allies having full access to American semiconductors, while most other nations would face stringent limits on computing power. This move, according to Nvidia, could harm the US economy and benefit its adversaries. Nvidia's CEO, Jensen Huang, expressed readiness to collaborate with the incoming Trump administration, highlighting the company's significant growth due to AI spending and its position as the world's most valuable chipmaker.
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The U.S. economy showed robust job growth in December, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting an addition of 256,000 jobs, significantly higher than the anticipated 165,000. This growth was accompanied by a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month. Wage growth aligned with expectations, increasing by 0.3% for the month, although it was slightly lower than the 0.4% seen in November. Despite these positive indicators, the labor market displayed signs of cooling, with the hiring rate and quits rate both declining. The labor force participation rate remained steady at 62.5%. Moreover, job openings rose to 8.1 million, marking the highest level since May 2023, suggesting a still tight labor market. However, private payroll additions slowed according to ADP's report, indicating a cautious approach in hiring. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that further cooling in the labor market isn't necessary to achieve the Fed's inflation targets, reflecting a nuanced view on economic policy amidst these labor market dynamics.
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Walgreens Boots Alliance reported a better-than-expected first-quarter adjusted profit, surpassing analysts' lowered expectations. Despite a significant drop in its share value in 2024, the company's stock rose 11.4% in premarket trading following the announcement. CEO Tim Wentworth's turnaround efforts, including multiple store closures, aim to improve profitability and cash flow. The company reported a loss on a reported basis due to costs from store closures and other charges, but excluding these, earnings were 51 cents per share, beating the consensus estimate of 37 cents. Walgreens reiterated its 2025 profit forecast and announced a $1 billion cost-cutting program along with plans to close over 1,200 stores. Despite these measures, the company faces ongoing challenges from low drug reimbursement rates and consumer behavior shifts, leading to speculation about potential sales to private equity firms.
