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President Trump's aggressive tariff policies are significantly altering US trade relations, affecting both allies and adversaries. With the introduction of "Liberation Day" on April 2, Trump aims to impose retaliatory tariffs on all US trade partners, fulfilling a campaign promise and potentially raising revenue for a forthcoming tax and spending bill. However, the approach has been adjusted to target primarily the "dirty 15" countries with unfavorable trade balances. Additionally, Trump has announced a 25% tariff on countries purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela, citing reasons like hostility and criminal entry into the US. This move has sparked concerns about escalating trade tensions. In response, the EU has delayed some of its retaliatory tariffs, including a 50% duty on American whiskey, to mid-April, allowing more time for negotiations. Canada and Mexico have also retaliated with tariffs on US goods, while China has imposed duties on US farm products. These actions have led to market uncertainty, with businesses and investors closely watching the unfolding trade war dynamics.
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Shell Plc has announced plans to enhance investor returns by focusing on its position as the world's top trader of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The company aims to increase its LNG sales by 4% to 5% each year until 2030, which will help in returning up to half of its operational cash flow to shareholders, primarily through share buybacks. This strategy follows a two-year "sprint" by CEO Wael Sawan to streamline operations, cut costs, and improve reliability. Shell's shares saw a 1.9% increase following the announcement. The company also plans to review its chemicals business, potentially leading to asset sales or plant closures in Europe, while maintaining a tight control on spending. Shell's focus on LNG is part of its broader strategy to transition towards lower-carbon energy, with expectations of a 20% to 30% growth in its LNG business by 2030. Despite a slight pivot away from renewables, Shell remains committed to reducing the carbon emissions intensity of its products.
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The article discusses the "DOGE" commission, purportedly aimed at enhancing government efficiency but criticized for undermining the IRS's ability to collect taxes, particularly from wealthy tax evaders. The commission, led by Elon Musk, is accused of cutting IRS staff and resources, which could exacerbate the annual tax gap of nearly $700 billion. This gap represents uncollected taxes, predominantly from the top earners, who benefit from complex income sources that are harder to tax. Despite a recent $80 billion boost to the IRS's budget by a Democrat-controlled Congress to improve enforcement and technology, Republican efforts, including those from the DOGE commission, aim to rescind this funding. This approach not only increases the national debt but also contradicts claims of fiscal responsibility, especially as it could hinder revenue collection needed for proposed tax cuts. The strategy appears to align with a broader GOP tactic to reduce government size by limiting its revenue, thereby protecting the wealthiest from paying their due taxes.
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The US economy is undergoing a narrative shift as growth projections for 2025 have been revised downwards by both the Federal Reserve and Wall Street analysts. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as "healthy" despite lowering the GDP projection to 1.7% from 2.1%. Major financial institutions like JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs have also adjusted their forecasts lower, citing potential impacts from President Trump's tariff policies. However, these revisions do not signal an immediate economic downturn but rather a moderation in growth. Powell noted that while the probability of a recession has increased slightly, it remains relatively low. Despite some indicators like consumer sentiment showing signs of worry, hard data like retail sales and PMI suggest that the economy is still on solid ground, with no immediate signs of a recession. This nuanced economic landscape leaves investors questioning whether growth forecasts will stabilize or continue to decline, potentially affecting stock market performance.
