Trump tariffs pose a greater threat to South Korea’s economy than domestic political chaos, BOK official suggests

Key Points

  • South Korea's political turmoil may subside within six months, but external pressures from potential U.S. tariffs are more concerning.
  • U.S. tariffs could impact South Korea's exports, introduce inflation in the U.S., and affect the Korean won.
  • The BOK has policy tools but no specific target for the forex rate, focusing on reducing market volatility.
  • Economic growth forecasts for 2025 have been revised downwards to 1.8% from 2.1% due to various pressures.
  • The BOK is more focused on inflation and financial stability than economic growth.

Summary

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is navigating through a complex economic landscape influenced by both domestic political turmoil and external economic pressures. Soohyung Lee, a Monetary Policy Board member, highlighted that while South Korea has managed to recover from past political uncertainties within six months, the looming threat of U.S. tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump poses significant risks. These tariffs could not only affect South Korea's export-driven economy but also contribute to inflation in the U.S., potentially keeping U.S. interest rates high and strengthening the dollar, which in turn could weaken the Korean won. Despite these challenges, the BOK has tools at its disposal to manage market volatility, though it does not target specific exchange rates. The economic growth forecast for 2025 has been adjusted downwards to 1.8%, reflecting the combined impact of internal and external pressures. To counteract these effects, the government plans to boost domestic demand through tax exemptions and wage incentives. However, the BOK's primary focus remains on controlling inflation and ensuring financial stability, even as it cautiously remains optimistic about South Korea's economic resilience.

cnbc
January 2, 2025
Stocks
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