Ukraine just stopped Russian gas flows to Europe. Here’s who’s most at risk

Key Points

  • Ukraine halted the flow of Russian gas to several European countries on New Year’s Day, ending Moscow's long-standing dominance in Europe's energy markets.
  • The stoppage marks the end of a five-year transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with no new deal due to the ongoing war.
  • Countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova are most at risk, having been heavily dependent on Russian gas transit volumes in 2023.
  • The European Commission has been preparing EU member states for this scenario, ensuring the bloc's readiness.
  • Ukraine will lose up to $1 billion annually in transit fees, while Gazprom could lose nearly $5 billion in gas sales.

Summary

On January 1, 2025, Ukraine ceased the transit of Russian gas to several European countries, marking a significant shift in Europe's energy landscape. This action ended a long-standing agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which was not renewed due to the ongoing conflict. The cessation affects countries like Slovakia, Austria, and Moldova, which were heavily reliant on Russian gas. The European Commission had anticipated this move and worked with member states to mitigate its impact. The stoppage will result in financial losses for both Ukraine, which will lose transit fees, and Gazprom, which will see a decline in gas sales. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that this decision was made to prevent Russia from profiting from the war. Despite the potential for energy supply disruptions, the EU's gas storage levels are relatively high, and alternative supply routes like the TurkStream pipeline are available. Political developments and weather conditions will influence gas prices in the coming months, with ongoing talks between some EU members, Russia, and Ukraine aiming for a possible resumption of supplies.

cnbc
January 2, 2025
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