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Halliday, an AI-focused blockchain protocol, has successfully raised $20 million in a Series A funding round led by Andreessen Horowitz's crypto division. The capital will be used to advance the development of their Agentic Workflow Protocol (AWP), which seeks to revolutionize the creation of decentralized finance (DeFi) applications by bypassing the traditional requirement for smart contract programming. According to Halliday, this innovation could drastically reduce the time needed to develop blockchain applications, potentially from years to mere hours. This shift from smart contract-based development to AI-driven workflows is expected to enhance blockchain's accessibility, scalability, and efficiency. The funding round also saw participation from other notable investors like Avalanche Blizzard Fund, Credibly Neutral, and Alt Layer, following a previous seed round in 2022. This move is part of Halliday's broader mission to usher in a new era of blockchain software development.
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The article discusses the volatility patterns in the bitcoin market, particularly highlighting the day of the week and the month that have shown the most significant price fluctuations. According to Amberdata, Tuesdays have been the most volatile day for bitcoin trading in 2025, with an average realized volatility of 82 over the past month. This volatility is measured by the standard deviation of returns from the market's mean return, indicating past price movements. In contrast, implied volatility reflects market expectations of future price swings. The article also notes that March 2024 had the highest monthly volatility since the beginning of the year, with a realized volatility of 67. Following a 30% drawdown from its all-time high, bitcoin's one-month annualized daily realized volatility nearly hit 70, a level only seen twice before in similar circumstances in March and August 2024. This information underscores the unpredictable nature of cryptocurrency markets and the importance of understanding volatility for traders.
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The article discusses the changing dynamics of the cryptocurrency market, particularly focusing on Bitcoin's increasing dominance since 2023. Despite a slight decrease from its peak, Bitcoin's market share remains high at around 61.6%. This rise in dominance comes amidst a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty, which has disproportionately affected altcoins due to their higher risk and lower liquidity. The market has also seen an overwhelming influx of new tokens, with over 12.7 million unique digital assets now listed, many of which are low-cap or meme coins. This saturation has led analysts to question the future of "altcoin season," where investors typically rotate profits from Bitcoin into riskier altcoins. The presence of Bitcoin ETFs has further siloed liquidity, reducing the capital available for altcoins. The article suggests that the traditional cycle of investor rotation into altcoins might be fading, with the market dynamics shifting due to these new financial instruments and the sheer volume of new cryptocurrencies competing for attention and investment.
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Bitcoin's price hovered around its 200-day average of $84,000 as a significant whale exited a multimillion dollar short position, while smaller cryptocurrencies like CAKE, TKX, OKB, and ATOM contributed to market optimism with positive performances. Despite a 6% surge on Monday, the SUI token struggled to maintain its momentum, influenced by asset managers' ETF filings with the SEC, indicating growing institutional interest in the crypto market. U.S.-based spot bitcoin ETFs saw a notable influx of $275 million on Monday, marking the first back-to-back inflows since February 7, suggesting a potential exhaustion in ETF-driven selling pressure. Analysts are divided on the sustainability of the recent bitcoin price bounce, with some predicting a bearish or sideways market for the next 6-12 months. The upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision could introduce volatility, with expectations of bitcoin trading within a range of $80,000 to $86,000. Meanwhile, traditional markets showed mixed reactions, with European stocks edging higher and gold remaining firm above $3,000 per ounce.
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On March 18, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced on X that the Bitcoin bull cycle has concluded, predicting a bearish or sideways market trend for the next 6-12 months. Ju supported his claim with on-chain metrics, including the Profit and Loss (PnL) Index Cyclical Signals, which currently suggest selling Bitcoin. He also presented a Principal Component Analysis chart showing that the 365-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin's price is significantly lower than its real-time price points since mid-2023, indicating no upward trend. Despite these bearish signals, Ju plans to hold his Bitcoin without shorting it. However, his outlook contrasts with other market sentiments; for instance, a millionaire trader predicted Bitcoin could hit $100,000 by the end of March, and another analyst expected a rally due to an increase in global M2 money supply. At the time of the report, Bitcoin was trading at $82,355.47 with a market cap of $1.6 trillion.
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Dogecoin (DOGE) has experienced a significant depreciation of 38.43% over the past month, trading at approximately $0.1666, which is 70% below its peak price of $0.48 in December 2024. Despite this downturn, on-chain data indicates a positive trend with an increase in wallets holding over 1 million DOGE by 1.24% since February, suggesting that major investors see the current price as an opportunity for accumulation, potentially anticipating a price recovery. Additionally, the number of active Dogecoin addresses has surged to over 150,000 daily, the highest since mid-November, which could signal growing adoption and utilization of the cryptocurrency. This increased network activity might pave the way for a price stabilization or recovery. However, the immediate market sentiment remains bearish, with Dogecoin showing continuous declines on the 5-minute chart, though a key support level at $0.165 could influence future price movements.
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Level, a stablecoin protocol, has successfully raised an additional $2.6 million in venture capital, led by Dragonfly Capital and Polychain, to expand its $80 million yield-paying stablecoin, lvlUSD. This funding round follows a previous $3.4 million raise, bringing the total venture capital funding to $6 million. The protocol aims to capitalize on the increasing demand for yield-generating digital assets amidst a cooling crypto market. Level's lvlUSD token differentiates itself by offering yield through decentralized finance (DeFi) lending protocols like Aave, with an annualized yield of 8.3% for staked tokens. The protocol has integrated with several DeFi platforms, enhancing its utility and attractiveness to investors. With plans to expand its team and marketing, Level is targeting a significant increase in its market cap, aiming for $200-$250 million. This move is part of a broader trend where new stablecoins are gaining popularity by offering yields, unlike traditional stablecoins like Tether, which do not share profits with users.
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The cryptocurrency market showed minimal volatility on Tuesday, with major tokens like dogecoin and XRP experiencing slight declines. The broader market, as indicated by the CoinDesk 20 Index, also saw a minor decrease. The market's subdued activity is largely attributed to anticipation around the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision could significantly impact risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Analysts expect rates to remain unchanged, but any indication of future policy shifts by Fed Chair Jerome Powell could influence market sentiment. A hawkish stance might pressure bitcoin and altcoins further, while dovish comments could lead to a market rally. Additionally, broader market conditions, including elevated volatility and geopolitical tensions, contribute to the cautious sentiment among investors. The potential for capital rotation from U.S. markets to European and Chinese markets, as suggested by QCP Capital, adds another layer of complexity to the crypto market dynamics.
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Financial technology and cryptocurrency companies are increasingly seeking to become state or national banks under the Trump administration, which they view as more supportive of their industry. This move is driven by the potential for easier regulatory approval, lower capital costs, and increased business credibility. The interest in bank charters has grown as firms anticipate a more deregulatory environment that could facilitate business expansion. Despite the slow pace of charter approvals in recent years, with only four new banks approved in 2023, there's optimism due to new regulatory appointments signaling a focus on innovation and technology. However, the process remains challenging, requiring significant capital and adherence to strict regulations like anti-money laundering laws. The administration's push for a pro-growth stance might encourage more competition in the banking sector, although the rigorous licensing processes could still delay new entrants.
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Gold has reached an unprecedented high of over $3,025 per ounce, marking a significant 15% increase since the beginning of the year. This surge contrasts sharply with Bitcoin, which has seen a 10% decline year-to-date. Several elements have propelled gold's rally, including substantial investments in gold ETFs, its traditional status as a safe-haven during geopolitical tensions, and the potential for new U.S. tariffs under President Trump. Gold's performance has been stellar, with a 40% year-over-year increase, far surpassing Bitcoin's modest 16% gain. Historically, gold and Bitcoin tend to move in opposite directions, with gold often leading the charge before Bitcoin catches up. The current market dynamics echo a similar pattern observed from 2019 to 2020, where gold initially surged, followed by Bitcoin. However, with rising global interest rates in 2022, both assets experienced pressure before rebounding in subsequent years. ByteTree's Charlie Morris highlights this as a significant gold rush, reminiscent of the market conditions in 2011 when Bitcoin was just beginning to gain attention.
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MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, has announced its intention to issue 5 million shares of Series A Perpetual Strife Preferred Stock to raise $500 million. This capital will be primarily used to further expand its Bitcoin holdings, continuing its aggressive acquisition strategy. The Series A Perpetual Preferred Stock, unlike common stock, does not provide voting rights but ensures a fixed dividend of 10% annually, paid quarterly. If dividends are not paid on time, they accumulate at an increasing rate, up to a maximum of 18% per year. This financial maneuver allows Strategy to raise funds without diluting the voting power of its common shareholders. Recently, Strategy purchased 130 BTC for $10.7 million, funded by selling shares of its 8.00% Series A preferred stock. As of March 16, Strategy holds 499,226 BTC, valued at over $41.6 billion, making it the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, controlling more than 2% of the total Bitcoin supply.
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James Howells, an early Bitcoin adopter, has faced another setback in his quest to recover a hard drive containing the private keys to 8,000 Bitcoin, now worth approximately $660 million. His appeal to the UK Court of Appeal was rejected, with Judge Christopher Nugee stating there was no real prospect of success. Despite this, Howells remains determined, planning to take his case to the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), arguing that his rights to property and a fair trial under Articles 1 and 6 of the ECHR were violated by UK courts. This legal battle stems from an incident in 2013 when Howells' former partner disposed of a bag containing the hard drive at the Docksway landfill in Newport, UK. The landfill is set to close in the 2025-2026 financial year, adding urgency to Howells' efforts. His case highlights the critical need for secure storage of cryptocurrency assets.
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The crypto market in 2025 faces significant risks from both external and internal factors. While analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of the year, concerns about a potential US recession and the crypto industry's "circular" economy are overshadowing these optimistic forecasts. Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, highlights the industry's lack of grounding, where the primary activity seems to be financing more of the same within the crypto ecosystem, rather than engaging with real-world revenue-generating activities. This circular nature, coupled with the recent memecoin meltdowns, has led to liquidity being drained from more established cryptocurrencies like Solana, which saw significant outflows. Additionally, macroeconomic indicators suggest a looming US recession, which could trigger a widespread sell-off in both traditional and crypto markets due to their correlation with tech stocks. Over 40% of market participants now expect a recession in the US, a sharp increase from previous months, according to Polymarket.
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Bitcoin's price has been unable to surpass the $85,000 resistance level, with daily candle highs fluctuating between $84,000 and $85,200 since March 12. The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, described as "no man's land," due to the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on March 18-19. There's a 99% chance that interest rates will remain unchanged, but the market's attention is on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech, which is expected to be hawkish given recent economic indicators. Key Bitcoin price levels to monitor include flipping $85,000 into support to aim for $90,000, with potential support levels at $74,000 and between $70,530 and $66,810. Analysts suggest that while the FOMC meeting could act as a wildcard, Bitcoin might see a retest near $70,000 in the coming weeks.
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Despite a recent correction, Bitcoin has shown resilience by outperforming other major global assets like stocks, equities, treasuries, and precious metals following the Trump election. The cryptocurrency experienced a 23% drop from its peak of over $109,000 on January 20, but still managed to maintain its lead in asset performance. Industry experts, including Gracy Chen from Bitget, remain optimistic about Bitcoin's future, predicting a potential rally to over $200,000 in the next one to two years. This optimism is supported by the significant inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have played a crucial role in Bitcoin's recent price surge. Despite concerns about a premature bear market, analysts suggest that the current market conditions are part of a correction within an ongoing bull market, influenced by global economic uncertainties.
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Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is set to issue $500 million in perpetual preferred stock, with the intention of using the funds for general corporate purposes, including the acquisition of Bitcoin and working capital. The offering, which will not be rated, is scheduled to be priced later in the week following a roadshow. The preferred stock will offer a fixed dividend rate of 10% per annum. This move comes on the heels of Strategy's recent $10.7 million Bitcoin purchase, indicating a continued focus on cryptocurrency investment. The company has plans to potentially issue up to $21 billion in preferred stock to further expand its Bitcoin holdings. Morgan Stanley, Barclays Plc, Citigroup Inc., and Moelis & Co. are managing the bookrunning for this offering.
