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Ripple Labs has taken a significant step towards expanding its business by filing a trademark application for "Ripple Custody," aiming to enter the competitive crypto custody market. This move comes at a time when crypto custody services are gaining traction, particularly after the U.S. approved Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, prompting major financial players to offer secure storage solutions. Ripple's application outlines services for maintaining possession of cryptocurrencies for financial management, alongside hints at a potential crypto wallet launch. This wallet could support XRP and other digital assets, possibly generating revenue through transaction fees. Ripple's previous venture into custody services in October 2024 indicates a strategic shift towards diversifying beyond its traditional payment services. The trademark filing covers various international classifications, suggesting a broad approach to digital asset management. Despite Ripple's silence on wallet plans, the filing indicates preparation for an expanded infrastructure. Meanwhile, Ripple is also navigating a nearing conclusion to its SEC lawsuit, with settlement talks ongoing.
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Coinbase Global has received approval from India's Financial Intelligence Unit to begin offering cryptocurrency services, potentially opening up new avenues for Bitcoin and XRP investments. This development is significant as India has historically been less welcoming to the cryptocurrency industry. The entry of Coinbase into the Indian market could lead to an influx of both financial and human capital, with potential benefits for Bitcoin due to its fixed supply and as an inflation hedge, and for XRP due to its utility in reducing costs and time for international remittances. However, the impact on Bitcoin and XRP prices might be gradual due to their substantial market caps. Despite the promising long-term outlook, immediate investment decisions should not be based solely on this development, considering the current market size in India and potential regulatory hurdles like the 30% capital gains tax on crypto.
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Recent data shows that despite significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, the majority of investors, especially older investors or "boomers," are holding onto their investments. Bloomberg's senior ETF analyst, Eric Balchunas, highlighted that while Bitcoin ETFs have experienced a $5 billion outflow, reducing the cumulative inflows from $40 billion to $35 billion, this represents only a 5% asset reduction. Notably, much of the outflows can be attributed to hedge funds rather than long-term retail investors. Balchunas pointed out that during the dot-com crisis, only 25% of funds left the SPY ETF, suggesting that the current 95% retention rate for Bitcoin ETFs is quite robust. He also discussed the impact of ETF launches and political influences on Bitcoin's price, noting a significant rise from $30,000 to $100,000, with a potential price floor at $70,000. Despite recent market downturns, Bitcoin's price remains relatively stable, indicating strong underlying investor confidence.
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Canary Capital Group has announced its intention to launch an exchange-traded fund (ETF) linked to the spot price of Sui, a cryptocurrency associated with Sui Network. This move adds to the growing list of cryptocurrency ETF filings with the SEC, which has seen increased activity since President Donald Trump's election. Trump's promise to reform the regulatory environment for digital assets has instilled a sense of optimism among market participants, with expectations that many of these ETF applications might be approved by the end of 2025. The SEC has already shown signs of easing its stance by dropping enforcement actions and reconsidering stringent custody rules proposed by the previous administration. However, the approval of new ETFs is likely to wait until Paul Atkins, Trump's nominee for SEC chair, is confirmed. Sui, with its significant market capitalization, joins other popular coins like Solana and XRP in the race for ETF approval, marking a notable expansion in the types of cryptocurrencies seeking to enter the ETF market.
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John Deaton, a former Massachusetts Senate candidate, has observed a significant shift in the U.S. crypto landscape, declaring the defeat of the "anti-crypto army." He highlights the U.S. President's ambition to position America as the global crypto hub, evidenced by an executive order to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve. This policy involves not just holding Bitcoin but actively seeking budget-neutral ways to acquire more, indicating a profound change in Washington's approach to cryptocurrency. The SEC, previously known for its stringent enforcement, has shown signs of relaxation by ending investigations against numerous companies. Despite ongoing legal battles, like that of Ripple, there's optimism about nearing resolutions. The market's current downturn is seen as a shakeout amidst broader macroeconomic and regulatory transitions. Legislative efforts are now focusing on stablecoins, with Senator Tim Scott pushing for related legislation. This evolving narrative is being closely followed by media figures like Eleanor Terrett, who aims to demystify policy discussions for crypto investors, emphasizing the importance of clarity for both companies and investors in this rapidly changing environment.
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According to CryptoQuant's founder Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin bull market has ended, with expectations of a bearish or sideways trend for the next 6-12 months due to declining market liquidity. Ju highlighted the lack of new capital inflows, exemplified by BlackRock’s IBIT experiencing three consecutive weeks of outflows, and noted that even with high trading volumes, Bitcoin's price has not significantly moved, signaling a bearish market. A report from CryptoQuant further supports this outlook, pointing to bearish signals from metrics like the MVRV Ratio Z-score, which has dropped below its 365-day moving average, historically indicating deeper corrections or the start of bear markets. The critical support level for Bitcoin is between $75K-$78K, with ongoing downward pressure from reduced whale accumulation and net selling by U.S.-based spot ETFs. This situation is compounded by warnings from market analysts about potential stagflation and sustained weakness in U.S. equities, which could further pressure crypto markets. Polymarket bettors currently see a 51% chance of Bitcoin ending the week between $81K-$87K, with a 31% chance of hitting $75K by month's end.
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Michael Saylor’s Strategy, known for being the world's largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, has made its smallest Bitcoin purchase to date, acquiring 130 BTC for approximately $10.7 million. This purchase was funded through the "STRK ATM" program, which is designed to raise capital for further Bitcoin acquisitions. Despite Bitcoin's price dipping below $80,000, this acquisition marks a significant reduction in size compared to previous buys, with the smallest prior purchase being 169 BTC in August 2024. With this latest addition, Strategy now holds 499,226 BTC, still needing 774 more to reach their ambitious target of 500,000 BTC. The average purchase price of their Bitcoin holdings stands at about $66,360, including fees and expenses. However, their current Bitcoin yield of 6.9% falls short of the 15% target set for 2025, indicating a gap in their financial performance expectations.
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CryptoQuant's CEO, Ki Young Ju, has shifted his perspective on Bitcoin's market cycle, now predicting a bearish or sideways trend for the next 6 to 12 months. This change comes after he previously suggested that the bull cycle was still intact but would be slow. Ju's current outlook is based on onchain metrics showing a drying up of fresh liquidity and new investors selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Despite this, not all analysts agree with Ju's bearish outlook. Pav Hundal from Swyftx argues that there's no need for panic, pointing out that global economic indicators are positive, and money will flow back into risk assets when the market sentiment shifts. Additionally, some market observers like Seth and Dave Weisberger are optimistic, citing the recent peak in global money supply as a potential catalyst for Bitcoin's price to surge. However, historical data suggests Bitcoin's price is significantly undervalued compared to its expected range, with predictions of new all-time highs by late April or before the end of June.
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The Libra token scandal has escalated with a class-action lawsuit filed in New York against Kelsier Ventures, KIP Protocol, and Meteora, accusing them of orchestrating a deceptive token launch that misled investors and resulted in significant financial losses. The lawsuit, filed by Burwick Law, alleges that the defendants used predatory liquidity pool strategies to artificially inflate the token's price, allowing insiders to profit while investors faced substantial losses. The token, promoted by Argentine President Javier Milei, saw a rapid withdrawal of approximately $107 million from its liquidity pools, leading to a drastic 94% drop in its market value. Despite Milei's involvement in promoting the token, he is not named as a defendant but is accused of creating a false sense of legitimacy. The lawsuit seeks various forms of relief, including damages and measures to prevent future fraudulent token offerings. Meanwhile, the majority of Libra token holders sold at a loss, with only a small percentage profiting, highlighting the severe impact on retail investors.
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According to a recent report by JPMorgan Chase, Bitcoin's network hashrate saw a slight increase in March, reaching an average of 811 exahashes per second (EH/s). Despite this growth in computing power, the profitability of Bitcoin mining took a hit due to a 10% decline in Bitcoin's price over the same period. Miners' daily earnings per unit of computing power dropped by 11% from February to March, earning them approximately $48,300 daily. This decline in profitability was exacerbated by the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in April 2024, which historically reduces miners' rewards by half, leading to a 52% profit drop. Additionally, the report highlighted the significant growth in the hashrate of U.S.-listed Bitcoin miners, which now constitute nearly 29% of the global network. However, the market capitalization of these mining companies decreased by 13% in March, reflecting broader market trends. Among the tracked companies, Argo Blockchain saw a slight gain, while Cipher Mining experienced a substantial loss.
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Hashdex, a crypto asset manager, has filed an amendment with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to expand the asset base of its Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF. The amendment proposes the inclusion of litecoin (LTC) and XRP, along with other prominent altcoins like cardano's ADA, solana's SOL, Chainlink's LINK, Avalanche's AVAX, and Uniswap's UNI. Currently, the fund predominantly invests in bitcoin (BTC) with a smaller allocation to ether (ETH). This move aims to diversify the fund's exposure to the cryptocurrency market, providing investors with a broader, yet still regulated, access to digital assets. Notably, an alternative version of this fund, traded on the Bermuda Stock Exchange, already offers exposure to this wider range of cryptocurrencies, indicating Hashdex's ongoing strategy to cater to investor interest in a more diversified crypto portfolio.
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Samson Mow, CEO of Jan3 and a Bitcoin advocate, has highlighted the risks associated with storing Bitcoin on centralized exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. In an interview with TheStreet Roundtable, Mow explained that these platforms do not offer the same legal protections as traditional bank accounts, making self-custody a preferable option for Bitcoin holders. He emphasized that while banks are regulated and insured by entities like the FDIC, cryptocurrency exchanges can freeze or seize funds with little to no recourse for users, particularly if the exchange operates outside the user's jurisdiction. Mow also noted the emerging trend of banks being allowed to custody Bitcoin, which could provide a more secure alternative for those not comfortable with managing their own keys. Despite the potential for losing access to funds if keys are misplaced, Mow supports the use of non-custodial wallets, pointing out their growing adoption in places like Latin America where millions use Tether. He likens self-custody to the historical practice of safeguarding one's own gold, advocating for financial independence through personal responsibility.
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The article discusses a common lesson learned by many in the cryptocurrency investment space: the pitfalls of chasing high-risk altcoins in hopes of outsized returns. It highlights that while professional crypto investors often diversify their portfolios across Bitcoin, stablecoins, and altcoins, aiming to capitalize on Bitcoin's halving cycle, the reality is starkly different. Over the last three years, data shows that only Tron outperformed Bitcoin among major cryptocurrencies, with others either underperforming or barely breaking even. The article emphasizes that the odds of consistently outperforming a simple strategy of holding Bitcoin are slim, due to the unpredictable nature of altcoin success. The phrase "Stay humble and stack Sats" encapsulates the wisdom of focusing on Bitcoin accumulation rather than speculative altcoin investments. This approach not only minimizes risk but also potentially maximizes returns over time, suggesting that investors should adopt this mindset to avoid the costly tuition of learning this lesson the hard way.
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On November 6, 2024, Josh Mandell, a well-known crypto trader, made a cryptic prediction on X that Bitcoin would reach $84,000 on March 14, 2025, and then surge to $444,000. His prediction was accurate as Bitcoin hit $84,700 on the predicted date. Mandell, who has a background in trading for major Wall Street firms, explained that Bitcoin's price behavior within a certain range would lead to a rally. He anticipated Bitcoin would reach $100,000 by the end of March. His trading success is evident from his portfolio growth from $2 million to over $23 million, primarily through Bitcoin and investments in Strategy, a company led by Michael Saylor. At the time of the article, Bitcoin was trading at $84,445.29, reflecting a 23% increase over the year with a market cap of $1.6 trillion.
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Securitize and Ethena Labs, in collaboration with BlackRock, have introduced Converge, a new blockchain designed to integrate traditional financial assets with the innovation of decentralized finance (DeFi). Ethena, known for its yield-bearing USDe token and BUIDL-backed USDtb stablecoin, plans to shift its $6 billion ecosystem to Converge. Meanwhile, Securitize, which manages BlackRock's BUIDL token, will bring its tokenized real-world assets, including a recently issued Apollo credit fund token, to this platform. The initiative aims to leverage the efficiencies of tokenization while exploring novel uses of digital assets in DeFi. Converge will support Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) compatibility, ensuring it can run Ethereum-based smart contracts and tools seamlessly. The blockchain will also feature a governance token, ENA, and will incorporate traditional finance entities and centralized exchanges as validators. This move is seen as a significant step towards merging traditional finance with DeFi, potentially unlocking new financial products and services.
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Bitcoin's price has recently dropped below $90,000, but rather than causing panic, this dip is seen by some, like trader David Gokhshtein, as a prime buying opportunity. During a discussion on TheStreet Crypto Roundtable, Gokhshtein expressed his enthusiasm for investing during this downturn, hoping for even lower prices to "get rid of the fickle fans" and make room for dedicated investors. Despite the current lack of retail investor participation, there's an anticipation that institutional investors and sovereign wealth funds are poised to enter the market, which could tighten Bitcoin's supply. Gokhshtein also hinted at potential government stimulus as a catalyst that could re-energize retail investor interest, referencing discussions about stimulus checks and the impact of movements like Wall Street Bets. He predicts that with lower interest rates and possible stimulus, the crypto market could see significant activity in the coming months.
