Crypto

Key Points

• President Donald Trump announced plans for a national cryptocurrency reserve on March 2, including Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana.
• A historic crypto summit will be hosted by the President at the White House on March 7, involving key industry figures and potentially influencing market movements.

Summary

The cryptocurrency landscape is set for significant developments following President Donald Trump's announcement of a national cryptocurrency reserve, which includes major coins like Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana. This initiative, set to be discussed at a groundbreaking crypto summit at the White House on March 7, marks a pivotal moment for the crypto industry. The summit will not only bring together investors, CEOs, and politicians but also potentially clarify or announce new policies that could significantly impact the market. Discussions might include the specifics of the reserve's size, distribution, and its legal framework, which could lead to substantial price movements in the mentioned cryptocurrencies. While the event promises volatility, it also offers a platform for dialogue between industry leaders and policymakers, potentially shaping future regulations in favor of these digital assets. Investors are advised to stay informed but avoid knee-jerk reactions to market fluctuations, focusing instead on the long-term implications of these policy developments.

Key Points

• The National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA) was launched with $50 million in funding from Ripple.
• NCA aims to provide unbiased information on digital assets and their role in finance.
• Ripple's Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, will serve as the NCA president.

Summary

The National Cryptocurrency Association (NCA), backed by Ripple, was officially launched with an initial funding of $50 million. The organization positions itself as an independent and non-political entity with the goal of demystifying cryptocurrencies by providing clear, unbiased information about how digital assets work and their significance in the financial sector. Stuart Alderoty, Ripple's Chief Legal Officer, has been appointed as the president of NCA. The association's mission is to educate and guide users on the responsible use of cryptocurrencies, aiming to serve a broad audience from various backgrounds. This launch comes at a time when Bitcoin is experiencing a rebound, possibly influenced by ongoing trade wars and the hope that cryptocurrencies could serve as a reserve asset.

Key Points

• U.S. President Trump announced the formation of a strategic crypto reserve, initially including XRP, Solana (SOL), Cardano (ADA), and later Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH).
• Despite initial market enthusiasm, investors became skeptical due to the inclusion of speculative assets like Cardano, leading to a market downturn.
• Bitwise suggests that the final reserve will likely be dominated by Bitcoin, and it will be larger than anticipated.
• The establishment of such a reserve by the U.S. could prompt other nations to follow, potentially stabilizing and legitimizing crypto markets.

Summary

U.S. President Trump's announcement of a strategic crypto reserve initially spurred market enthusiasm, but the subsequent inclusion of tokens like XRP, Solana, and Cardano alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum led to investor skepticism and a market downturn. Bitwise, in their analysis, highlighted that while the rollout was flawed, the market's reaction might be premature. They predict that the reserve will eventually be predominantly Bitcoin, and its size will exceed current expectations. The report suggests that this move by the U.S. could set a precedent for other countries, potentially leading to a more stable and recognized crypto market. Despite the initial market volatility, Bitwise remains optimistic, viewing the government's recognition of crypto assets as strategic as a bullish sign for the future of digital currencies.

Key Points

• Bitcoin's risk-adjusted returns have weakened significantly in February 2025, according to Ecoinometrics.
• Despite matching gold's total returns over the past year, Bitcoin's behavior is more akin to a major stock index when adjusted for risk.
• Bitcoin has experienced modest declines in 2025 amidst trade war threats and geopolitical tensions, while gold has seen an 11% increase year-to-date.
• The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is currently negative, suggesting Bitcoin might be at a bottom, as observed in previous periods.

Summary

Bitcoin's performance in February 2025 has been underwhelming, with its risk-adjusted returns significantly declining, as reported by Ecoinometrics. Although Bitcoin has matched gold's total returns over the past year, its behavior when adjusted for risk more closely resembles that of a major stock index rather than a safe-haven asset like gold. Amidst trade war threats, geopolitical tensions, and confusion from President Trump regarding government plans on cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has seen modest declines so far in 2025, while gold has surged by over 11% year-to-date. Analyst James Van Straten from CoinDesk notes that the current negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold often signals that Bitcoin is at a bottom, a pattern observed in previous years. This shift might affect Bitcoin's attractiveness to institutional investors who seek assets with favorable risk-reward profiles, challenging its narrative as "digital gold" in the short term.

Key Points

• Robinhood listed Arbitrum (ARB) on Wednesday, leading to a 12% rise in the token's price.
• ARB's trading volume increased by 10% to $400 million over the past 24 hours.
• Despite a steady total value locked (TVL), ARB's price is down 82% from its 2024 high due to increased token emissions.
• ARB outperformed other newly listed tokens like XRP, SHIB, and BONK, possibly due to its leading position in layer-2 networks.

Summary

The U.S.-based trading app Robinhood listed Arbitrum (ARB) on Wednesday, resulting in a 12% surge in the token's value. ARB, which had slumped to an all-time low of $0.35 on Tuesday, is now trading at $0.42. Despite a 10% increase in trading volume to $400 million over the past 24 hours, ARB's price remains 82% below its 2024 peak of $2.41, largely due to a significant increase in token emissions since March 2024. The total value locked (TVL) on Arbitrum has remained stable at $2.8 billion, indicating some level of investor confidence. ARB's performance outshone other tokens listed on Robinhood like XRP, SHIB, and BONK, possibly due to its leading role in layer-2 networks in terms of total value secured and user operations per second. Meanwhile, XRP, despite being mentioned in U.S. strategic reserve plans, has only $80 million locked in its decentralized exchange, highlighting the disparity in market dynamics between different cryptocurrencies.

Key Points

• The US crypto industry's reaction to President Trump's announcement of a national crypto reserve was mixed, with controversy over the inclusion of XRP, SOL, and ADA alongside Bitcoin and Ether.
• Solana is noted for its high transaction throughput and its role in the memecoin boom, but it faces criticism for centralization and venture capital influence.
• Cardano's slow and steady approach has left it behind in terms of DeFi activity, but it boasts significant decentralization and community governance.
• XRP's inclusion is debated due to its centralization concerns, despite its utility in cross-border payments by major financial institutions.

Summary

President Donald Trump's announcement of a national crypto reserve on March 2 sparked a mix of excitement and controversy within the US crypto industry. While Bitcoin and Ether were expected inclusions, the addition of XRP, Solana (SOL), and Cardano (ADA) raised eyebrows due to their respective issues. Solana, known for its speed and low cost, has been criticized for its reliance on venture capital and its association with the volatile memecoin market. Cardano, despite its slow rollout, emphasizes a research-driven approach and has transitioned towards greater decentralization. XRP, while used by major financial institutions for cross-border payments, faces scrutiny over its centralization, with Ripple controlling a significant portion of its supply. Despite these controversies, each cryptocurrency brings unique attributes to the table, highlighting the diverse landscape of digital assets in the US. However, the inclusion of these altcoins in a national reserve remains contentious, with critics arguing they lack the stability and global acceptance necessary for such a role.

Key Points

• Bitcoin open interest (OI) has fallen to its lowest level since August, currently at 413,000 BTC ($36 billion).
• The decline in OI is largely due to the unwinding of CME open interest, particularly in the basis trade.
• Binance's OI has dropped to a 12-month low, indicating reduced leverage from retail investors.
• Open interest as a percentage of bitcoin’s market cap has fallen below 2% for the first time since February 2024.

Summary

Bitcoin's open interest (OI) has significantly decreased to its lowest level since August, now standing at 413,000 BTC, equivalent to $36 billion. This drop in OI, which measures the total funds in outstanding futures contracts, reflects a reduction in leverage within the bitcoin market. The decline is primarily attributed to the unwinding of open interest on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), especially in the basis trade. Concurrently, bitcoin's price experienced volatility, dropping from $109,000 to $78,000 before recovering to $90,000, suggesting that the recent price movements were more influenced by spot market activity rather than leverage. Additionally, Binance, the second-largest exchange by OI, has seen its open interest plummet to a 12-month low, indicating a significant reduction in speculative activity from retail investors. This overall reduction in open interest as a percentage of bitcoin's market cap to below 2% highlights a notable decrease in market speculation and leverage.

Key Points

• The Fear and Greed Index has shown an extended 'extreme fear' reading, suggesting a potential buying opportunity for bitcoin.
• Historically, similar 'extreme fear' readings have preceded significant price increases in bitcoin, with one instance leading to a 200% rise.
• Current market volatility is influenced by trade tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties, potentially setting the stage for a buying opportunity if conditions improve.
• President Trump's announcement of a U.S. crypto strategic reserve initially boosted bitcoin and other major tokens, but the excitement was tempered by profit-taking and broader market sentiment.

Summary

The article discusses the current state of the bitcoin market, highlighted by an extended 'extreme fear' reading on the Fear and Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment from 0 to 100. This reading, the first since September 2024 when bitcoin was at $53K, suggests a potential buying opportunity as historically, such conditions have led to significant price recoveries. Vincent Liu from Kronos Research notes that a similar scenario in the past resulted in bitcoin doubling in value over three months. The market's volatility is attributed to trade tariffs and macroeconomic uncertainties, which could make this a strategic entry point for investors if global trade tensions ease. Additionally, President Trump's announcement of a U.S. crypto strategic reserve initially spurred a surge in bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies, although the enthusiasm was quickly dampened by profit-taking and broader market dynamics. Investors are now looking towards the upcoming White House Crypto Summit for further guidance on market positioning.

Key Points

• Foundation Capital has raised $600 million for its eleventh flagship fund, which is 20% larger than its previous $500 million fund.
• The firm focuses on early-stage investments, with 80% of its investments occurring before the company generates any revenue.
• Notable investments include Solana and AI chip maker Cerebras, which is now valued at $4.25 billion and planning an IPO.
• Foundation Capital has a history of investing in AI since 2009 and blockchain since 2014, showcasing their long-term commitment to these technologies.

Summary

Foundation Capital, known for its early investments in Solana and AI chip maker Cerebras, has successfully raised $600 million for its eleventh flagship fund. This fund is 20% larger than its predecessor, which was closed about three years ago. The firm's investment strategy emphasizes early-stage involvement, with 80% of its investments made before the companies have any revenue. A prime example of their foresight is their investment in Cerebras back in 2016 when the AI chip market was just emerging. Now valued at $4.25 billion, Cerebras is preparing for an IPO. Foundation Capital's commitment to AI and blockchain technologies is longstanding, having invested in AI since 2009 and blockchain since 2014, demonstrating their resilience and vision in these sectors even during market downturns.

Key Points

• The CoinDesk 20 Index is up 2.0% at 2910.89 since 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.
• Eighteen out of 20 assets in the index are trading higher.
• Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Chainlink (LINK) are the top performers, with gains of 20.8% and 8.6% respectively.
• Sui (SUI) and Ripple (XRP) are the only assets in the index showing slight declines.

Summary

The CoinDesk Indices daily market update provides insights into the performance of the CoinDesk 20 Index, which has seen a 2.0% increase, reaching 2910.89 since the last update. Out of the 20 assets tracked, 18 are trading higher, indicating a generally positive market sentiment. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Chainlink (LINK) have emerged as the leaders with significant gains of 20.8% and 8.6% respectively, showcasing strong investor interest in these cryptocurrencies. Conversely, Sui (SUI) and Ripple (XRP) are the only assets experiencing minor losses, with declines of 0.3% and 0.1% respectively. This update reflects the dynamic nature of the cryptocurrency market, where assets can experience rapid shifts in value. The CoinDesk 20 Index, being a broad-based measure, provides a snapshot of the overall health and trends within the crypto market, available on multiple trading platforms globally.

Key Points

• KvarnPortugal Fund combines investment in the CoinDesk 20 index with eligibility for the Portuguese Golden Visa, requiring a minimum investment of 500,000 euros.
• Portugal's appeal includes tax benefits, a thriving crypto community, and a stable environment amidst global uncertainties, attracting high-net-worth individuals.
• The fund offers a unique opportunity for investors to gain residency in Portugal with minimal physical presence requirements, appealing to those seeking mobility and tax advantages.

Summary

The KvarnPortugal Fund, launched by FundBox and Kvarn X, is a pioneering crypto investment product that leverages the CoinDesk 20 index to offer investors not only a diversified crypto portfolio but also an opportunity to secure residency in Portugal through the Golden Visa program. This fund requires a minimum investment of 500,000 euros, aligning with the Golden Visa's investment threshold. Jason Dominic and Anders Bjorkman highlight Portugal's growing appeal due to its economic restructuring, tax incentives, and a burgeoning fintech and crypto scene, making it a hotspot for wealth migration. The fund's structure allows investors to spend only 35 days in Portugal over five years to qualify for permanent residency or a passport, providing a strategic backup plan in today's volatile global landscape. The initiative not only caters to ultra-high-net-worth individuals looking for mobility and tax benefits but also opens up to a broader investor base with a lower entry point of 100,000 euros, managed similarly to an ETF. This approach reflects Portugal's status as a safe haven and a hub for crypto enthusiasts, amidst a backdrop of global instability and shifting political climates.

Key Points

• China and Germany have announced significant fiscal stimulus measures to support their economies.
• China targets a 5% GDP growth for 2025, with a fiscal deficit target raised to 4% of GDP.
• Germany plans to invest in defense and infrastructure, moving away from its traditional fiscal conservatism.
• These measures are expected to counteract potential negative impacts from U.S. fiscal policies.
• The fiscal plans could influence global financial markets by affecting currency values and bond yields.

Summary

China and Germany have recently unveiled substantial fiscal stimulus packages aimed at bolstering their economies amidst global economic uncertainties. China, at the National People's Congress, set a GDP growth target of 5% for 2025 and increased its fiscal deficit target to 4% of GDP, signaling a shift towards boosting domestic demand and consumption. This move reflects Beijing's strategy to transition from an investment-driven to a consumer-driven economy. Meanwhile, Germany has decided to abandon its long-standing fiscal restraint by unlocking billions for defense and infrastructure, aiming to stimulate its struggling economy. These fiscal expansions come at a time when the U.S. might reduce spending, potentially offsetting any adverse effects on global markets. The announcements have already influenced financial markets, with Asian and European equities rallying and Bitcoin experiencing a rise. Moreover, these fiscal policies are impacting currency values, with the EUR/USD pair gaining strength, which could lead to broader USD selling and ease global financial conditions, encouraging risk-taking in financial markets.

Key Points

• BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF (IBIT) experienced an 11% price decline last week, with trading volumes reaching the highest since mid-November.
• Over 331 million shares of IBIT were traded as the price fell below January's support level, reaching a low of $46.07.
• Investors withdrew over $1 billion from the ETF due to the price drop and a decrease in the CME futures basis, leading to panic selling.
• Despite the outflows, IBIT remains the largest ETF globally with $39.6 billion in assets under management.

Summary

Last week, BlackRock's spot bitcoin ETF, known as IBIT, saw its price decline by over 11%, marking a significant downturn since early November. The trading volume surged to its highest since mid-November, with over 331 million shares changing hands. The ETF's price dipped below the January support level of $50.69, eventually reaching a low of $46.07. This bearish movement was accompanied by investors pulling out more than $1 billion from the fund, driven by panic selling due to the price slide and a decrease in the CME futures basis. Despite these outflows, IBIT continues to be the largest ETF in the world, managing $39.6 billion in assets. The technical outlook for IBIT remains bearish as long as the price stays below the former support level, now acting as resistance.

Key Points

• Brendan Gunn, brother of Australian breakdancer Raygun, charged by ASIC for running a crypto-linked fraud scheme.
• Gunn faces up to three years imprisonment, a fine of $37,800, or both for his criminal offence.
• He allegedly defrauded three victims of A$181,000 ($113,000) through his company, Mormarkets Pty Ltd.

Summary

Brendan Gunn, the brother of well-known Australian breakdancer Raygun (Rachael Gunn), has been charged by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC) for orchestrating a cryptocurrency-related fraud scheme. Gunn, who was the director of Mormarkets Pty Ltd, allegedly defrauded three victims out of A$181,000 ($113,000) by accepting deposits for overseas crypto investments. The charges against him carry a potential penalty of up to three years in prison, a fine of $37,800, or both. This legal action comes in the wake of Raygun's notable but controversial appearance at the 2024 Olympics, which, despite her withdrawal, sparked significant social media attention and meme culture. Brendan Gunn has already appeared in court and is scheduled for another appearance on April 29.

Key Points

• Aave DAO proposed a major plan to accrue value for AAVE tokens and reward users.
• The plan includes increasing profit sharing for staked AAVE token holders and introducing Anti-GHO, a non-tradable token for debt management and rewards.
• A "buy and distribute" program aims to stabilize AAVE token value by buying back tokens from the market.
• A new "Umbrella" system will protect users from market crashes, offering a unique advantage over competitors.

Summary

Aave DAO has outlined a comprehensive strategy to enhance the value of AAVE tokens and benefit its users. The proposal, which has already seen a 21% surge in AAVE token value, includes several key initiatives. One significant aspect is the increase in profit sharing for those who stake their AAVE tokens, aiming to incentivize long-term holding. Additionally, the introduction of Anti-GHO, a non-tradable token, allows users to manage their GHO debt or convert it into staked GHO for additional rewards. The DAO also plans a "buy and distribute" program to stabilize AAVE's market value by repurchasing tokens weekly. On the technical front, Aave proposes "Umbrella," a system designed to protect users from market downturns, positioning Aave as a safer platform for institutional investors concerned with on-chain risks. Community feedback is currently being sought, with a formal on-chain proposal expected soon.

Key Points

• Ethereum's Pectra upgrade, the biggest since 2024, was successfully deployed on the Sepolia test network.
• Pectra includes 11 major features aimed at enhancing staking, wallet functionality, and network efficiency.
• A previous test on the Holesky testnet failed due to a misconfiguration, causing a chain split.
• EIP-7251 increases the maximum stakeable ETH from 32 to 2,048, simplifying staking for validators.
• EIP-7702 allows wallets to temporarily function as smart contracts, moving towards account abstraction.

Summary

Ethereum's Pectra upgrade, a significant update since 2024, has successfully been deployed on the Sepolia test network, marking a crucial step forward. This upgrade introduces 11 Ethereum Improvement Proposals (EIPs) designed to improve staking, wallet functionality, and overall network efficiency. However, the journey to this point wasn't without hurdles; a prior test on the Holesky testnet failed due to a validator misconfiguration, leading to a temporary network split. Despite this setback, developers are pushing forward, with plans to discuss the mainnet release timeline on March 6. Key features include EIP-7251, which allows validators to stake up to 2,048 ETH instead of the current limit of 32, simplifying the staking process. Another notable proposal, EIP-7702, enables wallets to act as smart contracts, enhancing user interaction by allowing features like paying transaction fees in stablecoins or setting up automatic payments. Amidst these developments, Ethereum faces competition from newer blockchains like Solana, and the Ethereum Foundation has been dealing with internal leadership issues, adding pressure to deliver upgrades efficiently.