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The article discusses the recent behavior of Bitcoin's price as reflected in technical charts, particularly focusing on candlestick patterns. Since last Wednesday, Bitcoin's price has found support at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), with notable candlestick formations on Tuesday and Friday. These candles, characterized by small bodies and long lower wicks, indicate that sellers attempted to push the price below the key average but were met with buying pressure, preventing a sustained drop. This pattern, especially after a significant downtrend, often signals a potential bullish reversal, suggesting that the selling pressure might be waning. If this trend continues, Bitcoin could see a recovery towards its recent high of around $95,000, with potential sights set on the $100,000 mark. However, a break below the 200-day SMA could lead to further declines.
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Animoca Brands, a prominent player in the web3 space, has reported a significant shift in its revenue sources in its latest financial year-end report for 2024. The company's Digital Assets Advisory unit has become its primary revenue generator, earning $165 million, marking a 116% increase from the previous year. This unit offers services like token advisory, tokenomics, marketing, and trading services to web3 projects. Conversely, traditional revenue from gaming and NFTs saw a 40% decline to $110 million. Despite this, Animoca has bolstered its financial position, holding $293 million in cash and stablecoins, $538 million in digital assets, and $2.9 billion in off-balance-sheet token reserves. The company's investment portfolio expanded, with a 67% increase in cash reserves and a 165% rise in digital asset holdings, although private investment holdings decreased by 18% due to various financial adjustments. This strategic pivot and financial strengthening come at a time when Animoca also expanded its physical presence by opening a new office in Hong Kong.
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Following President Donald Trump's announcement about including cryptocurrencies in a U.S. strategic reserve, there was a significant movement of digital assets to exchanges. On-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant reported that hourly inflows of XRP hit 193 million, with most transactions coming from whales moving large amounts. Similarly, bitcoin inflows to exchanges spiked to 6,739 BTC, and Ethereum saw an hourly peak of nearly 300,000 ETH. These movements typically suggest an intent to sell, as large holdings are usually kept in cold storage. The surge in trading activity was followed by a rapid price reversal, indicating a contraction in real spot demand for cryptocurrencies. Analysts from CryptoQuant highlighted that Bitcoin's apparent demand growth has been declining since a brief acceleration post-U.S. election in November-December 2024, now entering contraction territory for the first time since September 2024. This contraction poses challenges for sustaining any rally in crypto prices unless demand increases.
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The article discusses the recent movements of the Dollar Index (DXY) in relation to Donald Trump's presidency and its impact on financial markets, particularly cryptocurrencies. At the beginning of the year, the DXY mirrored its trajectory from Trump's first term, climbing from 100 to 110 between September 2024 and January 2025. However, it has since fallen below 105, a level not seen since mid-November. This drop in the DXY has coincided with a rise in bitcoin's value, surpassing $88,000, reminiscent of a similar pattern in 2017 when bitcoin's bull run occurred as the DXY fell. Despite these market movements, macroeconomic concerns persist, including potential tariffs, inflation, and a slowing U.S. economy. The upcoming jobs report is anticipated to reflect continued unemployment at 4.0%, and if it underperforms, it might lead to declining treasury yields, possibly prompting the Federal Reserve to consider a rate cut in March.
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In a recent analysis, network economist Timothy Peterson introduced a new Bitcoin price floor of $69,000, suggesting a 95% probability that Bitcoin will not drop below this level. This prediction comes from his "Lowest Price Forward" metric, which has a track record of accurately forecasting Bitcoin's price trends. Despite recent dips in Bitcoin's value, Peterson remains optimistic about its future, predicting a significant bull run after a potential cooling off period of up to three months. He also highlighted Bitcoin's sensitivity to geopolitical events, especially looking towards 2025. Peterson's long-term outlook is even more bullish, forecasting Bitcoin to reach $1.5 million by 2035. His analysis underscores the resilience and potential growth of Bitcoin, even amidst market volatility and external pressures.
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The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has clarified that the Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) does not explicitly prohibit the custody and transfer of non-compliant stablecoins like Tether's USDt. This statement comes amidst ongoing debates and uncertainties regarding the classification and use of such stablecoins under the new European cryptocurrency laws. Binance, a major crypto exchange, announced the delisting of nine non-MiCA-compliant stablecoins for users in the European Economic Area (EEA) but will continue to support deposits and withdrawals. ESMA emphasized that while these services are not banned, crypto asset service providers (CASPs) should prioritize restricting services that facilitate the acquisition of non-compliant assets. The guidance also allows for "sell-only" services until March 31, 2025, to enable investors to exit their positions. This clarification adds to the confusion over MiCA compliance, highlighting the need for careful assessment by CASPs to ensure they do not inadvertently offer non-compliant services to the public.
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THORChain, a crosschain asset swap protocol, has come under scrutiny following its involvement in the laundering of funds stolen during the $1.4 billion Bybit hack, the largest in crypto history. The North Korean state-affiliated Lazarus Group, identified as the main suspect, utilized THORChain to move over $605 million of the stolen cryptocurrency. Since the exploit, THORChain has processed over $5.4 billion in swap volume, generating significant revenue. However, this has sparked controversy over its role in facilitating illicit transfers, with critics pointing out the lack of Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures and transaction monitoring. A core developer resigned after a decision to block funds linked to North Korean hackers was reversed, highlighting internal conflicts within the protocol's governance. Despite the controversy, THORChain's volume and revenue continue to grow, raising questions about the balance between decentralization and security in the crypto ecosystem.
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SBI VC Trade, a cryptocurrency arm of the Japanese financial conglomerate SBI, is gearing up to support Circle's USDC stablecoin as Japan eases its regulations on stablecoins. The firm announced on March 4 that it had completed the necessary registration to process USDC transactions, positioning it to be among the first in Japan to offer trading in this stablecoin. Following this, SBI VC Trade plans to initiate a trial for selected users on March 12, with expectations of a full-scale rollout soon after. This development comes after Japan lifted its ban on foreign stablecoins in 2023, signaling a more open approach to cryptocurrency. The CEO of SBI VC Trade, Tomohiko Kondo, confirmed the news, highlighting that the firm is the first in Japan to obtain a stablecoin license. Additionally, the Financial Services Agency Commissioner, Hideki Ito, expressed support for stablecoin transactions, emphasizing their role in financial innovation during a recent fintech event.
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Bitcoin's attempt to reclaim the $94,000 price level has met with significant resistance, as noted by Bitfinex analysts in their recent market report. Following a brief surge after US President Donald Trump's announcement of a crypto reserve, which pushed Bitcoin's price from $85,000 to $95,000, the cryptocurrency has since fallen back to around $87,190 due to intense selling pressure in the spot market. Analysts suggest that any recovery to surpass $94,000 will be challenging. The market sentiment remains uncertain, with no clear indication of whether the current downtrend will persist or if an uptrend is on the horizon. Pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital hinted at potential stability around $93,500 but did not rule out further declines. The market's volatility is expected to continue until genuine buyers, rather than arbitrage traders, enter the market, amidst an "Extreme Fear" sentiment as per the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to dismiss its lawsuit against Cumberland DRW, a Chicago-based crypto trading firm, which was accused of operating as an unregistered securities dealer. The SEC had filed the lawsuit in October, alleging that Cumberland DRW had been dealing in over $2 billion worth of crypto assets, including tokens like Polygon, Solana, Cosmos, Algorand, and Filecoin, which the SEC classified as securities. Despite Cumberland's registration as a dealer-broker in 2019 and ongoing discussions with the SEC, the firm faced legal action. This dismissal marks another instance where the SEC has chosen to drop cases against crypto-related firms, following similar actions against Coinbase, Kraken, Consensys, and investigations into NFT companies like Yuga Labs and OpenSea. Cumberland expressed optimism about future dialogues with the SEC to foster regulatory clarity alongside technological advancements in the crypto space.
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The crypto market experienced a significant surge following Donald Trump's re-election, with Bitcoin prices reaching a record high. However, since the inauguration, Bitcoin's value has dropped by 26%, now trading below $80,000. This decline has been attributed to various factors including macroeconomic issues like potential tariff wars and a global economic slowdown, as well as specific crypto-related incidents like the Bybit hack. Despite initial enthusiasm for Trump's pro-crypto policies, the market has cooled, possibly due to delays in policy implementation and broader economic pressures. Analysts suggest this could be a normal market correction after the initial hype. While there are concerns about the sustainability of Trump's crypto initiatives, the long-term outlook for cryptocurrencies remains optimistic, supported by regulatory advancements and increasing institutional interest. The administration's continued commitment to crypto-friendly policies could potentially restore market confidence and growth.
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Bitcoin experienced a significant sell-off, dropping below $90,000 as the Wall Street open brought fresh sell-side pressure, influenced by US trade tariffs and anticipation of President Trump's decisions on tariffs against Canada. This led to over $150 million in crypto liquidations within hours, impacting late longs in the market. Despite the downturn, there was some optimism due to an expected "investment announcement" from Trump. Market analysts like QCP Capital suggested that Trump might take measures to prevent a prolonged stock market drawdown, hinting at potential market surprises. Bitcoin traders are now looking for signs of a higher low formation, which could propel the price towards $100,000. The market's volatility was also reflected in raised VIX levels, indicating broader unease in risk assets.
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The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has decided to drop its lawsuit against the cryptocurrency exchange Kraken, marking the end of what Kraken described as a "wasteful, politically motivated campaign." The lawsuit, which was filed in November 2023, accused Kraken of operating without proper registration as a broker, dealer, exchange, and clearing agency. The dismissal, announced on March 3, includes no admission of wrongdoing from Kraken, no penalties, and no alterations to its business practices. This decision follows a pattern of the SEC under Gary Gensler's leadership, which has been criticized for stifling innovation through a policy of regulation by enforcement. The recent dismissals of lawsuits against other crypto entities like Coinbase, Uniswap, and OpenSea suggest a possible shift in the regulatory environment, potentially influenced by upcoming legislative efforts to provide clearer rules for digital assets. Additionally, President Donald Trump's plans for a crypto strategic reserve and a White House Crypto Summit indicate a growing acceptance and strategic interest in cryptocurrencies at the highest levels of government.
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The ongoing SEC case against Ripple stands out as an anomaly amidst a wave of dismissals of other high-profile cryptocurrency enforcement actions. Initiated in the last months of the first Trump administration, the case has been pivotal in shaping the legal landscape for cryptocurrencies. Despite recent shifts in SEC policy under Commissioner Hester Peirce, who has moved away from regulation by enforcement, the Ripple case persists. This persistence could be attributed to several factors: Ripple's need for a more favorable legal outcome than the $125 million fine and five-year fundraising prohibition it currently faces, potential negotiations for a better settlement, or internal resistance within the SEC to the previous judicial ruling. Ripple has also been actively engaging with the Trump administration, possibly influencing the case's trajectory. However, the exact reasons for the case's continuation remain speculative, with no public comments from either the SEC or Ripple's legal team. The case's resolution or continuation might hinge on the incoming SEC chair's confirmation and the broader shift in regulatory approach under the Trump administration, which seems to favor dealmaking over strict legal enforcement.
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Bitcoin's price has been under pressure, nearing $80,000, as the US dollar rebounds from a 12-week low and trade tariffs against Mexico and Canada come into effect. The cryptocurrency market has shown signs of volatility, with Bitcoin reaching new local lows of $82,037 before a slight recovery to near $85,000. The imposition of these tariffs has exacerbated investor concerns about escalating trade tensions, contributing to a broader market sell-off. Despite some positive developments like the SEC pausing enforcement cases against crypto firms, the market remains anxious due to the potential for retaliatory tariffs that could dampen global growth. However, there is a glimmer of hope for a Bitcoin price recovery, with some market analysts suggesting that bearish sentiment and historical trends could pave the way for a rally in the near term.
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Bitcoin experienced a significant price surge to $92,000 on Monday, driven by renewed institutional interest following President Trump's announcement of a strategic crypto reserve. However, this rally left a notable gap in the CME Bitcoin futures chart, which was filled by Tuesday afternoon as BTC retraced to $83,500. This gap-filling event led to the liquidation of over $900 million in bullish bets, with nearly $400 million of those bets on higher bitcoin prices being liquidated in the past 24 hours. The market dynamics suggest a correction after sharp moves, with historical data indicating that such gaps often act as magnets for bitcoin prices. Despite the gap being filled, the market remains cautious as another gap below $80,000, formed after Trump's election, is now under scrutiny, potentially signaling further bearish movements.
