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The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is due to announce its latest monetary policy decisions, which include interest rate reviews and economic projections. This event is anticipated to cause fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, with Volmex's volatility indices predicting price movements of 3% to 5% for Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana. Despite these figures being high compared to traditional markets, they are within the normal range for crypto markets, suggesting that the market might not experience an extreme reaction to the Fed's announcements. The FOMC is expected to maintain current interest rates but might signal the end of its quantitative tightening, potentially affecting risk assets. However, any positive market reactions could be moderated by concerns over stagflation as indicated in the economic projections.
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The Czech National Bank (CNB) is exploring the diversification of its reserve assets, with bitcoin under consideration despite skepticism from board member Jan Kubicek. Kubicek cited legal uncertainties and the cryptocurrency's volatility as major concerns, suggesting that direct ownership would necessitate significant changes in accounting and auditing practices. He also noted the unpredictability of bitcoin's future market behavior, especially with potential increased institutional investment. The CNB's analysis, expected to conclude by October, will look into various asset classes beyond just bitcoin, including international corporate bonds and targeted equity indices. This exploration comes as the bank has already diversified its reserves, which stand at 142.8 billion euros, by increasing its gold holdings and shifting more into equities. Despite the interest in new asset classes, CNB Vice Governor Eva Zamrazilova and ECB President Christine Lagarde have both voiced opposition to bitcoin as a reserve asset.
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Ripple Labs announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has ended its appeal against a July 2023 court decision by U.S. District Judge Analisa Torres. The ruling stated that Ripple's XRP token, when sold on public exchanges, did not qualify as a security. However, the SEC had partial success as Torres ruled that $728 million worth of XRP sales to institutional investors should have complied with securities laws, leading to a $125 million fine on Ripple, which was suspended pending appeal. Ripple's CEO Brad Garlinghouse and Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty celebrated this development as a significant victory. The SEC's retreat from aggressive crypto oversight coincides with changes in administration, including the nomination of Paul Atkins, seen as crypto-friendly, to replace Gary Gensler as SEC chair. This shift in policy also saw the SEC ending lawsuits against other crypto exchanges and considering resolution in other cases, reflecting a broader change in regulatory approach towards cryptocurrencies.
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Cryptocurrency markets are showing signs of recovery following a dip, with bitcoin and the broader CoinDesk 20 Index experiencing slight gains. This comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision, where interest rates are expected to remain steady, but the market is keenly watching for signals on the end of quantitative tightening (QT). Since mid-2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet, which had ballooned to support the economy during the COVID-19 crisis. An earlier-than-expected end to QT could potentially boost risk assets like bitcoin by reducing liquidity withdrawal from the market, thereby weakening the dollar and enhancing the appeal of cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged, despite rising inflation, has not significantly influenced bitcoin's attractiveness as an alternative store of value. However, the growing recognition of bitcoin's potential is evident as more public companies are investing in it, with the number of corporate holders doubling in two years. Despite these positive developments, the looming threat of stagflation due to tariff issues could pose challenges for market participants.
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The upcoming FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are anticipated to have a profound effect on financial markets, particularly the cryptocurrency sector. Historical trends indicate that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies often experience significant price movements following FOMC announcements, influenced by shifts in macroeconomic policies. For instance, Bitcoin saw a sharp decline in December 2021 after the Fed announced aggressive rate hikes, but rebounded in November 2022 with a softer rate increase. Analysts are currently split on the potential outcomes; some expect continued volatility, while others like Arthur Hayes and Michael van de Poppe speculate on the broader economic implications, including the EU's re-armament and its impact on U.S. fiscal policy. Van de Poppe suggests that while a rate cut is unlikely, any indication of a shift towards quantitative easing or a pause in quantitative tightening could lead to a bullish trend in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. At the time of writing, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown positive movements, with Bitcoin up nearly 2% and Ethereum up nearly 6% in the last 24 hours.
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Blockdaemon, a prominent crypto infrastructure provider, has recently acquired expand.network, a platform offering a single API connection to the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem. This strategic acquisition, valued in the double-digit millions, aims to simplify the entry of major financial institutions into the on-chain trading world. Expand.network connects to over 170 endpoints, including decentralized exchanges (DEXs), lending protocols, and oracles, providing a comprehensive gateway to DeFi. With regulatory clarity on the horizon in the U.S., banks and large financial entities are exploring ways to engage with blockchain technologies. Blockdaemon, backed by investors like Goldman Sachs, already supports a significant portion of the top 500 crypto-active institutions by managing nodes, staking rewards, and now, offering cross-blockchain self-custody wallets. This move is seen as a step towards integrating traditional finance with DeFi, potentially reducing costs and enhancing efficiency for banks, as noted by Blockdaemon's CEO, Konstantin Richter. However, he acknowledges that further regulatory clarity, adoption, and decentralization are necessary for widespread institutional benefits.
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Privy, a New York-based blockchain infrastructure company, has successfully raised an additional $15 million in a funding round led by Ribbit Capital, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Paradigm, and Coinbase. This latest investment brings Privy's total funding to over $40 million. The company focuses on providing software tools that simplify the integration of crypto wallets into websites and mobile apps, aiming to make blockchain technology more user-friendly and accessible. CEO Henri Stern emphasizes the importance of crypto wallets as the entry point for mainstream users into the blockchain ecosystem. Privy's growth has been significant, now servicing around 50 million accounts and partnering with 1,000 businesses, including notable names like Blackbird and OpenSea. The company plans to use the new funds to expand its team, aiming to double its current 25-person staff within the next 18 months.
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The article discusses the recent volatility trends in Bitcoin, highlighting that Tuesdays in February exhibited the highest average realized volatility at 82, with March 2025 being notably volatile since early 2024. This volatility coincides with Bitcoin's significant price drop of 30% from its all-time high, pushing its one-month annualized daily realized volatility to 70, well above the average of 50. Historical data shows similar volatility spikes, particularly after Bitcoin hit $73,000 in March 2024. Analyst Ali Martinez points to several metrics indicating a potential bear market, including a slowdown in Bitcoin's Realized Cap Net Position Change to +0.67% monthly, and a negative MVRV Ratio, suggesting a shift in market momentum. Additionally, the decline in Bitcoin's "hot supply" indicates a move towards longer-term holding among investors, potentially signaling a change in market sentiment.
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Utila, a digital asset operations platform, has successfully raised $18 million in a Series A funding round to bolster its multi-party computation (MPC) wallet solutions. This investment, led by Nyca Partners and joined by several other venture capital firms, aims to meet the growing institutional demand for secure digital asset management. The platform's technology splits private keys among multiple parties, significantly reducing the risk of security breaches, a concern highlighted by recent high-profile crypto exploits like Bybit's $1.5 billion incident. Utila's CEO, Bentzi Rabi, emphasized the lack of suitable options for organizations, pointing out that existing solutions either lack key features or are not enterprise-ready. The funding will support Utila's global expansion and enhance its product offerings, including advanced gas management and smart contract support, as the company has already seen its transaction volume increase from $3 billion to $8 billion monthly.
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Ripple has declared the conclusion of its legal battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which had accused the company of selling XRP as an unregistered security. This case, which began in 2020, saw a significant ruling in 2023 by Judge Analisa Torres, stating that XRP was only a security when sold to institutional investors, leading to Ripple paying a $125 million penalty instead of the $2 billion sought by the SEC. The SEC's decision to drop its appeal against this ruling reflects a broader trend under President Trump's administration, which has shown a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment. This shift has also seen the SEC pausing or dismissing other high-profile cases against crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance. Trump's support for cryptocurrencies, including plans for a strategic US crypto reserve, has been influenced by significant donations from the crypto industry, with Ripple being a notable contributor.
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Ether (ETH) experienced a notable surge of nearly 7% in the last 24 hours, leading the gains among major cryptocurrencies as traders awaited the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcomes. This rise was accompanied by a 4% increase in dogecoin (DOGE), with other Ethereum-based memecoins like pepe (PEPE) and mog (MOG) also seeing gains over 5%. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) saw a modest 2% rise but remained below $84,000, with the $80,000 mark being a crucial support level to monitor. The ETH/BTC ratio increased, indicating a shift in investor preference towards ETH over BTC. Ethereum's next major update, Pectra, is in testing and aims to improve various aspects of the network, including scalability and staking. Despite these developments, market sentiment remains cautious, with traders at QCP Capital noting the tenuous support for BTC at $80,000 amidst broader economic uncertainties. The FOMC's decision could significantly influence the crypto market's direction, with potential dovish or hawkish outcomes affecting investor behavior.
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Bitcoin has undergone a significant correction, dropping 30% from its peak of $109,590 to a low of $77,041, primarily due to selling pressure from short-term holders who have incurred unrealized losses. Bitfinex analysts highlight that these holders, defined as those who bought within the last seven to 30 days, are more prone to capitulation. Despite a slight rebound to $84,357, the market has not seen a strong return of institutional demand, with Bitcoin ETFs experiencing outflows of around $920 million in a recent week. The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by low consumer confidence, expectations of higher inflation, and economic uncertainty, might be contributing to the market's volatility. However, Bitfinex suggests that if Bitcoin stabilizes at these lower levels, historical patterns indicate a potential for a strong recovery, although the return of institutional investors remains crucial for market stability.
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The long-standing legal battle between Ripple and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has concluded, with the SEC deciding to drop its appeal against Ripple. This development was announced by Ripple's CEO, Brad Garlinghouse, at the Digital Asset Summit in New York. The case, which started in December 2020, accused Ripple of conducting an unregistered securities offering worth $1.3 billion. Garlinghouse highlighted the significance of this moment, describing it as a victory for Ripple and the broader crypto industry. He expressed gratitude towards everyone who supported Ripple through the legal ordeal, including employees, the legal team, the XRP community, customers, and partners. The news led to a positive market reaction, with XRP's price surging by 10%. Garlinghouse also praised the new SEC leadership and the U.S. government for seeking a constructive path forward in cryptocurrency regulation, suggesting that this could position the U.S. as a leading hub for crypto innovation.
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The article explores the potential for Bitcoin to surpass gold in market value, a scenario dubbed as "flipping gold." Currently, Bitcoin's market cap is significantly lower than gold's, with Bitcoin needing to increase its value by over 12 times to match gold's $20.1 trillion market cap. Despite this, Bitcoin has shown remarkable growth, increasing by 1,460% in the last five years, suggesting that such a flip is within the realm of possibility. The key factors that could drive this growth include Bitcoin's inherent scarcity, its increasing acceptance by financial institutions, and its utility in digital transactions. Unlike gold, Bitcoin does not require physical storage, is easier to liquidate, and does not incur the same fees associated with ETFs or storage. However, Bitcoin's volatility and limited real-world utility are noted as drawbacks. For Bitcoin to actually flip gold, it would need widespread adoption by governments, financial institutions, and individual investors, potentially through policies like a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and further integration into traditional financial systems. The article suggests that while the timeline for this event is uncertain, the long-term strategy for investors might be to gradually build and hold Bitcoin positions.
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Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, voiced her concerns about a potential recession during a virtual speech at the Digital Asset Summit in New York. She attributed this risk to President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which she believes could slow down the velocity of money, a critical economic indicator. Despite these concerns, Wood remains steadfast in her belief in the long-term value of cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin. ARK Invest has substantial investments in Bitcoin, with holdings amounting to $3.97 billion, alongside significant stakes in Coinbase and Robinhood, both key players in the crypto exchange market. Wood's optimism extends to her prediction that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, underscoring her confidence in the future of digital currencies. This outlook persists even as the firm navigates through economic uncertainties, with ARK and 21Shares recently receiving SEC approval to launch a spot Bitcoin ETF, which has already amassed $4 billion in net assets.
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The article discusses the recent volatility in the cryptocurrency market, focusing on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin, which have all seen notable declines in value. This downturn is part of a larger trend affecting risk assets, influenced by an upcoming Federal Reserve decision. The shift in ETF investments from Bitcoin and Ethereum to gold indicates a move towards more secure investments amid economic uncertainty. The narrative explores how these cryptocurrencies, often touted for their potential as a "store of value," are reacting to recession fears. While Bitcoin and Ethereum are viewed with long-term optimism, their historical volatility in less severe economic conditions raises concerns about their stability in a prolonged downturn. Dogecoin, on the other hand, is seen more as a speculative asset, with its price movements driven by market sentiment and leveraged positions. The article suggests that while there might be buying opportunities in Bitcoin and Ethereum during dips, investors should consider their investment timelines and risk tolerance carefully.
