Commentary: The Trump economic plan that could be much riskier than tariffs

Key Points

  • The "Mar-a-Lago Accord" is a concept that could dramatically reshape global capital flows by devaluing the US dollar and refinancing US debt, potentially putting the US in a more adversarial role with trading partners.
  • Stephen Miran, now head of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, wrote a paper on restructuring the global trading system, which has caught the attention of investors due to his new role.
  • The plan involves devaluing the US dollar to address chronic trade deficits, which Trump believes are inherently bad, though economists have mixed views on this.
  • A coercive approach might be used to force foreign holders of US Treasuries into long-term bonds, potentially destabilizing financial markets and increasing borrowing costs.
  • The complexity and potential economic disruption of the plan could lead to higher prices, interest rates, and damage investor confidence in US Treasuries.

Summary

The article discusses the potential economic strategy known as the "Mar-a-Lago Accord," proposed by Stephen Miran, who has recently been appointed by President Trump to head the White House Council of Economic Advisers. This plan aims to fundamentally alter global trade dynamics by devaluing the US dollar, which Trump believes would correct the trade deficit and bring manufacturing jobs back to the US. However, this approach is met with skepticism from economists who argue that a strong dollar benefits the US by providing access to global markets and maintaining economic stability. The plan involves complex financial maneuvers like imposing fees on foreign Treasury purchases and possibly forcing foreign holders into century bonds, which could disrupt financial markets and increase US borrowing costs. Critics highlight the potential for economic turmoil, including higher inflation and interest rates, and the risk of undermining trust in US Treasuries. Despite these concerns, Trump's focus on manufacturing and his use of tariffs as a tool to address economic issues continue to shape his economic policy, even as investors and analysts remain wary of the broader implications of such drastic measures.

yahoo
March 31, 2025
Stocks
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