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Raoul Pal, CEO of Real Vision, has observed that the current cryptocurrency market cycle closely resembles the 2017 Bitcoin trend, characterized by a steady rise followed by a dramatic surge. In a recent video, Pal suggested that macroeconomic indicators, such as a weakening US dollar (down 8.99% since January to 98.77 on the US Dollar Index), point to an extended crypto cycle potentially lasting into Q2 2026. Bitcoin, inversely correlated with the dollar, becomes a more appealing investment and alternative currency during such periods. Pal also noted that current market dynamics might align more with 2020—an early growth phase—than the peak of 2021. He emphasized the role of macroeconomic data in delaying the cycle's peak, citing unchanged interest rates and dollar fluctuations. Additionally, Pal highlighted growing institutional interest, particularly from Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds, where AI and blockchain are becoming central mandates, not just for Bitcoin as a reserve asset but for government infrastructure. This suggests the crypto market could see sustained expansion with increased participation from major players.
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The S&P 500 achieved a record high by the end of the first half of 2025, marking a remarkable recovery from a 19% plunge in April triggered by fears over President Trump’s tariffs. Despite challenges like AI competition from China and Middle East tensions, the market rebounded swiftly, with investors capitalizing on pullbacks. A notable 10% drop followed Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff announcement on April 2, but the index recovered within a month as tariff delays eased concerns. Retail investors played a significant role, with a record $3 billion in net purchases on April 3. Bullish sentiment prevails, as noted by experts like Charles Schwab’s Joe Mazzola and Interactive Brokers’ Steve Sosnick, who highlight a sense of invincibility among traders. Looking ahead, Wall Street, including Fundstrat’s Mark Newton and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson, remains optimistic, citing pressure on money managers to outperform and improving corporate profit outlooks. With potential Federal Reserve rate cuts in sight, the market is poised for further gains despite possible third-quarter consolidation.
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As President Trump's self-imposed July 9 deadline for tariff negotiations nears, global trade tensions are escalating. Trump has expressed confidence in meeting the deadline without extension, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warns of reverting to high "Liberation Day" tariffs for uncooperative nations. The European Union is open to a 10% universal tariff on exports to the US but seeks exemptions for key industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, alongside reduced duties on autos and steel. Meanwhile, Trump has threatened Japan with new tariffs over their refusal to accept US rice, and Canada averted a crisis by scrapping a digital services tax on US tech giants, resuming trade talks. The economic impact is already visible, with prices of China-made goods on Amazon outpacing US inflation. With only one signed deal with the UK so far, countries are racing to finalize agreements before the deadline, amid uncertainty over potential extensions and the broader implications of Trump's tariff policies on global trade and consumer costs.
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Republican Party leaders are scrambling to unify their ranks over President Donald Trump’s $3.3 trillion tax and spending package, which includes deep cuts to social safety-net programs like Medicaid to fund tax breaks primarily benefiting the wealthy. Internal GOP disagreements persist over the extent of these cuts and the rollback of clean energy tax credits, while Democrats, sidelined in Washington, are exploiting these divisions by proposing amendments during a marathon Senate voting session. These amendments aim to expose politically sensitive provisions and complicate the GOP’s efforts to pass the bill swiftly. Senate Majority Leader John Thune remains uncertain about securing enough support, needing to sway key holdouts among a divided party, with only a narrow margin for dissent. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expresses optimism about the bill reaching Trump’s desk by July 4. The legislation’s potential to widen budget deficits is pressuring US Treasuries, particularly long-term bonds, as investors demand higher yields. Democrats warn of a voter backlash in the 2026 midterms, with figures like Senator Thom Tillis, who announced his retirement amid disputes over Medicaid cuts, highlighting the bill’s unpopularity and Trump’s unfulfilled health care promises. The Congressional Budget Office estimates 11.8 million could lose health coverage over a decade due to the proposed cuts.
