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Bitcoin is currently facing what could be the most significant price correction of this bull market cycle, with a 26.62% drop from its all-time high of $109,500. According to CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, this decline, while substantial, is less severe than previous bear market drawdowns. Historical data shows Bitcoin has experienced much deeper corrections, like an 83% drop in 2018 and a 73% correction in 2022. The current market conditions, including a flat NASDAQ 100, suggest that Bitcoin might struggle to recover quickly. Michael Saylor’s Strategy has also paused its Bitcoin purchases, indicating a cautious approach amidst the downturn. Technical indicators point towards potential support levels at $74,000 and a significant demand zone between $65,000 and $69,000, which could act as liquidity levels. The weekly RSI has reached its lowest since January 2023, hinting at a possible recovery if historical patterns hold true. However, the market remains volatile, and investors are advised to conduct their own research before making investment decisions.
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Bitcoin's futures market has undergone a significant de-leveraging event, with the leverage ratio halving since early 2025, indicating a cooling off after weeks of correction. This de-leveraging, driven by massive liquidations, has taken many traders out of the market, leading to a healthier market reset. Analyst Sina from 21st Capital suggests that Bitcoin has already completed 75-80% of its correction, with a potential worst-case scenario of dropping to $70,000. Despite the grim macro backdrop, Bitcoin is considered deeply undervalued for long-term investors. The current market conditions, with a significant drop in open interest, suggest that while short-term volatility might occur, Bitcoin is positioned for long-term stability. However, immediate recovery seems unlikely as Bitcoin is expected to move sideways within a volatility corridor of $75,000 to $96,000, with a risk of dropping below $74,500 if it fails to hold above the 365-day simple moving average.
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US President Donald Trump's recent tariff decisions have significantly impacted global financial markets. He announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries that do not impose counter-tariffs, while simultaneously increasing the tariff rate on China to 125% due to their retaliatory measures. This announcement led to a sharp rise in the S&P 500, with a nearly 7% increase, highlighting the market's sensitivity to trade policy changes. The volatility index, which measures market fluctuations, soared to its highest since August 2024, reflecting the uncertainty and potential for a prolonged trade conflict. Despite a slight decrease in the VIX, the market remains highly volatile. Additionally, market analysts like Arthur Hayes have speculated that these trade tensions could lead to a devaluation of the Chinese yuan, potentially driving Chinese capital towards cryptocurrencies, as seen in previous economic downturns.
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The crypto market has been experiencing its worst quarter since the FTX crisis, leading many investors to worry about the end of the bull market. However, a panel at the LONGITUDE by Cointelegraph event in Paris suggested that the real bull market has yet to begin. Michael van de Poppe from MN Capital highlighted historical patterns, drawing parallels between the current market conditions and the 2020 COVID-19 crash, suggesting that chaotic sell-offs often precede significant market reversals. Messari CEO Eric Turner emphasized that the market has not seen a true bull run, but rather isolated trends like the memecoin frenzy. He predicts the actual bull market will start in the third or fourth quarter of 2025. Despite positive regulatory developments in the U.S., including potential stablecoin and market structure bills, the market has not seen significant capital inflows due to broader economic concerns, particularly related to trade policies under President Trump. However, experts remain optimistic, expecting intervention from the Federal Reserve if economic conditions deteriorate further.
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The European Central Bank (ECB) is pushing for the development of a digital euro to counteract the rising influence of US dollar-pegged stablecoins in Europe. ECB executive board member Piero Cipollone has been vocal about the necessity of a central bank digital currency (CBDC) to maintain the eurozone's monetary sovereignty. He argues that a digital euro would limit the use of foreign currency stablecoins as a medium of exchange within the euro area. Cipollone's concerns are heightened by the US's crypto-friendly policies, which could lead to a further strengthening of the dollar's role in global payments. He stresses the importance of a public-private partnership to retain sovereignty, with the digital euro serving as a cornerstone. Despite the push for digital currency, Cipollone acknowledges the vital role of cash in financial inclusion, although its use is limited online, necessitating a digital alternative. However, the proposed digital euro faces skepticism among European consumers, particularly regarding data privacy.
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The relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets is undergoing significant changes as investors react to escalating US trade tensions. Over four consecutive days, US-listed Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows totaling more than $326 million, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF experiencing the largest single-day outflow of over $252 million. This selling pressure was triggered by President Trump's announcement of reciprocal import tariffs, leading to a massive $5 trillion drop in the S&P 500. Despite Bitcoin initially showing resilience, its price eventually fell below $75,000, highlighting its evolving but still interconnected relationship with traditional markets. Analysts like Lennix Lai from OKX suggest that while Bitcoin's correlation with equities might be weakening, its price remains influenced by global liquidity conditions. Moreover, Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a strategic reserve asset for diversification in volatile traditional markets, with its price dynamics largely driven by expectations of future fiat money supply.
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The Trump administration's approach to cryptocurrency regulation hints at a significant shift, potentially moving away from classifying cryptocurrencies as securities. Early actions include addressing the crypto industry's debanking issues by reversing previous restrictions, allowing banks to engage with cryptocurrencies more freely. This includes the repeal of SAB 121 by SAB 122, which had previously made it difficult for banks to hold cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the SEC has dropped several notable cases against crypto firms like Coinbase, Kraken, and Ripple, suggesting a change in enforcement priorities. These dismissals imply that the SEC might not consider most token-generating activities as investment contracts. Furthermore, new guidance from banking regulators like the OCC and FDIC indicates a more permissive environment for crypto-related activities, potentially opening up new avenues for crypto businesses in the U.S. This flurry of policy changes and dismissals could signal a sea change in how the U.S. government views and regulates cryptocurrencies, providing a more favorable regulatory landscape for the industry.
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In a recent incident, a Bitcoin user mistakenly paid nearly 0.75 BTC, equivalent to around $60,000 at the time, in transaction fees due to a panic-induced replace-by-fee (RBF) error. The transaction, which occurred shortly after midnight UTC on April 8, was an attempt to alter the transaction's target address and increase the fee to ensure it was processed over the original transaction. Anmol Jain from AMLBot suggested that the user might have intended to set a fee of 30.5692 satoshis per virtual byte but instead set it at 305,692 satoshis due to haste or confusion. This error resulted in the fee being significantly higher than intended. The incident highlights the complexities and potential pitfalls of manual transaction settings in cryptocurrency wallets, particularly with features like RBF, which allows users to replace unconfirmed transactions with ones offering higher fees. Despite its utility, RBF remains a controversial feature in the Bitcoin community, with debates over its implications for transaction finality and security.
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Pakistan has taken a significant step towards embracing blockchain technology and digital assets by appointing Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, as an adviser to its newly established Pakistan Crypto Council (PCC). This move, confirmed by the country's finance ministry, aims to leverage Zhao's expertise in cryptocurrency regulation, infrastructure, and adoption. Despite his past legal troubles, Zhao's appointment is seen as a strategic move to attract foreign investment into Pakistan's burgeoning crypto market. The country, which has been on the sidelines of the crypto revolution, is now actively seeking to develop a clear regulatory framework for digital assets. This initiative comes at a time when Pakistan is experiencing a surge in formal remittance channels due to crackdowns on black market dollar trades, and it ranks high in Chainalysis' crypto adoption index for 2024. The adoption of stablecoins and the use of digital assets for hedging against currency devaluation are also notable trends in the region, indicating a growing acceptance and utility of cryptocurrencies in Pakistan.
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In his opinion piece, Jay Jog, co-founder of Sei Labs, argues that the solution to scaling the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM) lies not in Layer 2 solutions but in enhancing Layer 1 capabilities. He points out that despite the initial promise, Layer 2s have introduced their own set of problems, including centralization risks and interoperability issues, which fragment liquidity and complicate user experiences. Jog criticizes the industry's focus on transactions per second (TPS) as a performance metric, suggesting instead the use of "gas per second" to better reflect the computational effort required for different transaction types. He advocates for a return to improving Layer 1s, suggesting that rebuilding the EVM with performance in mind, through methods like parallelization and new consensus mechanisms, could significantly enhance scalability and efficiency. This approach, he believes, will not only solve the EVM's scalability issues but also foster a more developer-friendly environment, paving the way for the EVM's future growth and adoption.
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The article discusses the growing sentiment among cryptocurrency analysts that Bitcoin could potentially outlast the US dollar, especially in light of President Donald Trump's recent global tariffs. These tariffs, which include a 10% baseline on all imports and harsher reciprocal tariffs on countries with significant trade deficits with the US, have led to a decline in the US Dollar Index and sparked fears of a broader economic downturn. Analysts like Jeff Parks from Bitwise Invest and Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, argue that with diminishing trust in the US dollar and other currencies perceived as weaker, Bitcoin emerges as a more appealing option for investors. The article also touches on the views of Bitcoin author Saifedean Ammous, who criticizes the US's reliance on fiat currency and suggests a shift towards hard money like Bitcoin or gold as a solution to global economic imbalances. The discussion highlights a pivotal moment where Bitcoin's role as a store of value is being seriously considered amidst economic uncertainty.
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The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) has raised concerns about the potential impact of the growing crypto industry on traditional financial markets. ESMA's executive director, Natasha Cazenave, highlighted that while crypto currently represents only 1% of global financial assets, its increasing integration with traditional finance could lead to broader market disruptions if crypto prices experience sharp declines. Despite the implementation of the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulation in the EU, Cazenave emphasized the need for ongoing vigilance and possibly more regulatory measures to manage the risks associated with crypto-assets. She pointed out the rapid evolution and unpredictability of crypto markets, referencing recent incidents like the Bybit exploit and the collapse of FTX. Although Europe lags behind the US in crypto adoption, with over 95% of European banks not involved in crypto activities, retail investor interest is growing, aligning with global trends.
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Bitcoin's price dynamics are under scrutiny as its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) has hit a low not seen since the beginning of 2023, suggesting a potential price bottom around $70,000. Analyst Rekt Capital has forecasted that Bitcoin might find its floor near the previous all-time highs from 2021, indicating a possible dip to $70,000 before a recovery. This prediction is based on historical trends where Bitcoin's price typically bottoms out slightly below the level where the RSI first indicates an oversold condition. Despite the current RSI not being in the oversold territory, its recent behavior suggests that Bitcoin could still see a significant correction. Moreover, macroeconomic trends, as highlighted by network economist Timothy Peterson, could push Bitcoin's price towards this $70,000 mark, which is seen as a critical support level by many market observers. However, the article emphasizes that these insights do not constitute investment advice, and potential investors should conduct their own research.
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Ripple has announced the acquisition of Hidden Road, a crypto-friendly prime broker, for $1.25 billion, marking one of the largest mergers in the cryptocurrency sector. This strategic move positions Ripple as the first crypto firm to operate a global, multi-asset prime broker, aiming to expand its footprint in the financial services industry. The acquisition is set to bolster Ripple's offerings, particularly its stablecoin RLUSD and XRP services, by integrating them into Hidden Road's extensive network, which clears over $3 trillion annually. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse highlighted the significance of this deal in bridging traditional finance with the crypto market, especially at a time when regulatory environments in the US are evolving. The acquisition not only enhances Ripple's technological capabilities but also aims to accelerate the adoption of digital assets by leveraging Ripple's unique position and the strengths of XRP.
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Bitcoin experienced a rebound as traders observed a potential weakening of the Chinese yuan, which could benefit Bitcoin's price. However, the ongoing trade war between the US and China has limited Bitcoin's upward movement, keeping it around the $80,000 mark. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, highlighted that either the People’s Bank of China or the US Federal Reserve could provide the necessary conditions for a significant Bitcoin rally. Meanwhile, AllianceBernstein anticipates that the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates in 2025 to stimulate economic growth, despite inflationary pressures from tariffs. Amidst these developments, Bitcoin's price has shown stability, with traders closely monitoring key Fibonacci retracement levels for signs of support or further consolidation. The market's reaction to these economic indicators and geopolitical tensions will likely influence Bitcoin's price trajectory in the near term.
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In a twist of fate, the wallet linked to the $40 million ZKasino scam lost over $27 million after a leveraged position was liquidated, following a sharp decline in Ethereum's price. ZKasino, which launched in April 2024, promised an airdrop of its native token to users who bridged Ether to the platform. However, instead of returning the funds, ZKasino transferred around $33 million in user ETH to the staking protocol Lido Finance. Nearly a year later, the wallet behind the alleged exploit was liquidated for $27.1 million, as reported by blockchain analytics platform Onchain Lens. Despite the liquidation, affected users are no closer to recovering their funds. The incident came after significant sell-offs in traditional equity markets, leading to a crypto market correction. Dutch authorities arrested a suspect involved in the scam, but ZKasino has yet to return the ETH to investors, leaving many still waiting for their funds.
