3 Predictions for the Next Crypto Bubble

Key Points

• China's Stance on Chip Tracking: Beijing is using the summons of Nvidia staff over H20 chip security concerns as a strategic move to oppose US plans for tracking high-end semiconductors, signaling caution to domestic firms and global partners.**
• Nvidia's Position: Nvidia firmly opposes backdoors or tracking mechanisms in its chips, emphasizing that such features undermine trust and security in US technology.**
• Broader Implications: The Chinese action reflects a broader resistance to surveillance capabilities in American semiconductors, potentially resonating with global audiences, including US allies.**
• US-China Relations: Despite the chip dispute, both nations are maintaining a tariff truce and are reportedly close to a deal, with Trump expressing optimism about relations with China.**
• Domestic Impact in China: The scrutiny of imported chips has boosted shares in Chinese chipmakers, as Beijing may leverage the situation to push for domestic substitution or negotiate supply security.**

Summary

In the ongoing US-China trade conflict, Beijing is leveraging the issue of high-end chip tracking to assert its position globally against the Trump administration’s surveillance plans. Chinese regulators recently summoned Nvidia staff over alleged security risks with its H20 chips, a move seen as a warning against future US tracking mandates rather than a direct critique of the chips themselves. Analysts suggest this action aims to caution domestic firms, alert the world, and pressure Nvidia to influence US policy. Nvidia has publicly rejected backdoors or tracking in its technology, citing security and trust concerns. Meanwhile, US officials are exploring chip-tracking methods, though a final deal with China on trade issues, including rare-earth magnets, remains pending. Despite tensions, both sides maintain a tariff truce, with Trump expressing optimism about a potential agreement. China’s resistance to surveillance in American chips may resonate globally, while domestic media and policies push for self-reliance in AI chip production, boosting local semiconductor firms. The situation underscores the delicate balance between technological competition and broader US-China relations, with potential implications for global tech supply chains and security standards.

Key Points

• AMD's Q2 Results: AMD reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.48, missing Wall Street's expectation of $0.49, but surpassed revenue forecasts with $7.6 billion against an expected $7.4 billion.**
• Q3 Guidance: The company provided a strong Q3 revenue outlook of $8.4 billion to $9 billion, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $8.3 billion.**
• Stock Reaction: Despite the positive guidance, AMD's stock fell over 4% after the earnings release, though it remains up 44% year-to-date.**
• AI Chip Impact: AMD faced an $800 million impact from a U.S. ban on AI chip sales to China, resulting in a $155 million operating loss for the quarter.**
• Segment Performance: AMD's Data Center revenue reached $3.2 billion, meeting expectations, while its Client business significantly outperformed with $3.6 billion against a forecast of $2.5 billion.**

Summary

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) released its Q2 earnings, reporting an adjusted EPS of $0.48, slightly below Wall Street's $0.49 expectation, but exceeding revenue forecasts with $7.6 billion compared to the anticipated $7.4 billion. AMD also issued a robust Q3 guidance of $8.4 billion to $9 billion, surpassing analysts' $8.3 billion estimate. However, the stock dropped over 4% post-earnings, despite a 44% year-to-date gain. The company faced challenges from a U.S. ban on AI chip sales to China, incurring an $800 million impact and a $155 million operating loss. On a positive note, AMD's Data Center segment met expectations at $3.2 billion, and its Client business outperformed with $3.6 billion in revenue against a $2.5 billion forecast. The upcoming launch of the MI350 AI chip line, designed to compete with Nvidia's offerings, and the reversal of the China sales ban by the Trump administration, are expected to bolster future performance. AMD's results come ahead of Nvidia's earnings report, with both companies navigating a competitive AI chip market and geopolitical challenges.

Key Points

• XRP declined 4.2% in a 24-hour session ending August 6 at 02:00, dropping from $3.06 to $2.93 with a high of $3.08 and a low of $2.92.
• A significant volume surge of 169.41 million, over three times the 24-hour average, drove the price down from $3.04 to $2.97, establishing $3.04 as resistance and $2.93 as support.
• Final-hour trading saw an additional 1% decline, with a late volume burst of 1.6 million confirming bearish control and fresh intraday lows.
• Technical analysis indicates continued downside risk with rejection at $3.04, high volatility, and potential further support at $2.87 and $2.80 if $2.92 fails.
• Traders are monitoring the $3.00 psychological level, the $2.93 support zone, and broader market sentiment influenced by geopolitical and trade instability.

Summary

XRP experienced a notable 4.2% decline during the 24-hour trading session ending at 02:00 on August 6, falling from $3.06 to $2.93. The price peaked at $3.08 before a sharp reversal, driven by a massive 169.41 million volume surge—over three times the average—pushing it down from $3.04 to $2.97. This established $3.04 as interim resistance and $2.93 as a local support floor. Bearish momentum persisted into the final hour with an additional 1% drop, sealed by a late 1.6 million volume burst, confirming intraday lows at $2.92. Technical analysis highlights rejection at $3.04, elevated volatility, and downside risk if $2.92 support fails, with potential further declines to $2.87 or $2.80. Traders are focused on reclaiming the $3.00 psychological level, defending $2.93, and watching for bullish divergence or broader market impacts from geopolitical tensions and trade instability. The current consolidation range sits narrowly between $2.96 and $2.97, reflecting ongoing uncertainty.