Key Points
Summary
Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) faces a potential stock drop of 15% to 25% if US District Judge Amit Mehta orders the divestiture of its Chrome browser, as warned by Barclays analysts. This follows Google's loss in a landmark antitrust trial in August 2024, where it was found guilty of monopolizing the search engine market. The Department of Justice has proposed severe remedies, including selling Chrome, sharing search data with rivals, and ending exclusivity deals that position Google as the default search engine on devices. Barclays analyst Ross Sandler highlighted that Chrome, with 4 billion users, contributes 35% of Google’s search revenue, making its potential sale a significant blow, possibly cutting Alphabet’s earnings per share by 30%. While the likelihood of divestiture remains low, it has risen after recent closing arguments. Judge Mehta’s remedy decision is anticipated in August, and Google plans to appeal. Separately, Alphabet agreed to a $500 million settlement with shareholders over antitrust compliance issues. Alphabet’s stock fell 1.5% on Monday and is down 10.6% year to date, reflecting investor concerns over these legal challenges.
Key Points
Summary
US stocks advanced on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 setting a new record close at 6,909.79, up 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains. Despite strong economic data revealing a 4.3% annualized GDP growth in Q3—exceeding the expected 3.3%—investors scaled back expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, with odds of a January cut dropping. Precious metals, including gold and silver, continued their remarkable rally, hitting new highs and on track for their best year in over 40 years, while copper also reached a record above $12,000 per ton. However, consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month, indicating persistent economic unease. On the corporate side, Novo Nordisk’s stock surged after US approval of its Wegovy weight-loss drug. Meanwhile, discussions around revising the Fed’s 2% inflation target to a range-based system emerged, and government spending increased despite a reduction in federal workforce under the Department of Government Efficiency. As markets head into the Christmas holiday, early closures and full-day closures are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
Key Points
Summary
The past year at the Federal Reserve was marked by a rare conflict between its goals of maximum employment and stable prices, echoing 1970s stagflation, and resulting in significant internal divisions over interest rate policies. Despite this, Chair Jerome Powell secured consensus for three rate cuts in 2025, though future chairs may face challenges if inflation remains high and the job market weakens. President Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs and immigration curbs, alongside his pressure on the Fed and threats to remove Powell, sparked fears over central bank independence. Tariffs initially had a milder-than-expected impact on inflation, but concerns persist about sustained price pressures into 2026, exacerbated by data gaps from a record government shutdown. The labor market showed signs of cooling, prompting dissents within the Fed on whether to prioritize inflation or employment. Looking ahead, the Fed plans a cautious approach with only one rate cut expected in 2026, as it navigates a muddy economic picture, fiscal tailwinds, and ongoing inflation above its 2% target. A new Fed chair, likely favoring lower rates, will inherit these challenges amid questions about independence and economic forecasts.
Key Points
Summary
US airlines are gearing up for a record-breaking holiday season, expecting an average of 2.9 million passengers daily from Dec. 19 to Jan. 5, a 1.5% rise from last year, according to Airlines for America. Domestic round-trip airfares are set to average $900, up 7% from 2024. Major airports are also bracing for significant increases, with New York and New Jersey expecting 5.7 million travelers (1% up), Chicago’s airports preparing for 4.8 million (6% up), and Dallas Fort Worth anticipating 5 million (3.2% up). However, the year has been turbulent for airlines, with economic uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s April tariff announcement and a government shutdown in autumn leading to temporary flight cuts at 40 major airports due to staffing shortages at the Federal Aviation Administration. Additionally, ongoing airport renovations in cities like New York and Chicago are causing potential delays, with authorities advising travelers to plan for construction and traffic congestion. Despite these challenges, bookings saw a recovery over the summer, setting the stage for a busy holiday travel period.
