Lower rates were supposed to bring homebuyers back this fall. Here’s why it hasn’t happened.

Key Points

  • Mortgage rates are stable at around 6.3%, near year-to-date lows, but still too high to significantly motivate buyers to enter the market.
  • Inventory is increasing as sellers test the market, but high home prices and rates continue to deter most buyers, creating a stalemate.
  • Home sale cancellations are at a high, with 15% of contracts in August falling through, the highest rate for the month since 2017.
  • Buyers are gaining slight power in some markets as inventory rises and price cuts become more common, though sellers are often unwilling to lower prices significantly.
  • Many buyers are adopting a "wait and see" approach, potentially holding off until spring for lower rates or better affordability.

Summary

This year’s fall housing market has failed to rebound from its ongoing slump, despite mortgage rates stabilizing at around 6.3%, near 11-month lows, and anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts. While inventory is rising as sellers test the market, high home prices and rates continue to deter buyers, creating a persistent stalemate. Experts note that the slight drop in rates hasn’t significantly improved affordability, with Zillow estimating rates would need to fall to 4.43% for median-income families to afford a typical U.S. home. Cancellation rates for home sales are high, with 15% of August contracts falling through, and buyers in various regions are gaining some leverage as inventory grows and price cuts increase. However, many discretionary buyers are playing a waiting game, hoping for better conditions in spring, while sellers with low existing mortgage rates often hold firm on prices or pull listings if unmet. Real estate professionals across markets like San Antonio, Boston suburbs, and Northeast Ohio report slow sales, climbing inventory, and cautious buyers strained by affordability challenges, despite some regional price appreciation. The market remains in a state of pent-up supply and demand, with potential for shifts if prices plateau or rates drop further.

yahoo
October 18, 2025
Stocks
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