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A robust June jobs report has shifted expectations for Federal Reserve actions, significantly lowering the likelihood of a rate cut in July to just 5%, down from 24% a day earlier, as per the CME FedWatch Tool. The strong employment data also reduced the probability of a September cut from 94% to 68%, indicating confidence in the economy's resilience. Economists like Nancy Vanden Houten from Oxford Economics suggest the Fed can hold policy steady, observing tariff impacts on inflation, while Jeffrey Roach of LPL Financial notes the Fed's comfortable "wait-and-see" stance amid ongoing trade negotiations. Politically, the report intensifies White House criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell, with President Trump demanding his resignation and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent questioning the Fed's rate decisions. Despite these tensions, the positive labor market news propelled the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to record highs, reflecting market optimism. The upcoming Consumer Price Index data on July 15 will provide further insight into inflation trends, continuing the macro play-by-play. Hamza Shaban of Yahoo Finance highlights how the jobs data and Fed policy expectations interplay with market sentiment and political narratives, shaping economic discourse.
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The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set for release on Tuesday, is expected to reflect a faster pace of inflation, with a projected year-over-year rise of 2.6% compared to 2.4% in May, and a monthly increase of 0.3%. Core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is forecasted to edge up to 2.9% annually. This comes as President Trump’s proposed tariffs, ranging from 15% to 50% on imports from countries like Canada, Mexico, and the EU, raise concerns about their impact on consumer prices. Economists note a potential reversal in declining car and apparel prices, which could push core inflation higher. Amid renewed trade tensions, the Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting path remains uncertain, though markets expect rates to hold steady for now. Analysts from Wells Fargo, Bank of America, and Goldman Sachs suggest tariffs will likely contribute to a gradual rise in core goods inflation, driven by factors like rebounding used car prices and broader cost increases. However, they anticipate limited pass-through to consumers and expect inflation pressures to cool later in the year due to softening housing and labor market dynamics. The June CPI data is seen as a critical indicator of whether inflation is strengthening, though not yet at a level to alarm Fed officials.
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Nvidia announced plans to resume sales of its H20 AI chip to China, following U.S. export restrictions that previously halted sales due to national security concerns, costing the company $15 billion in revenue and a $5.5 billion inventory write-off. The company is seeking U.S. government licenses to restart deliveries and has developed a new, compliant AI chip, the RTX Pro GPU, for the Chinese market. CEO Jensen Huang, visiting Beijing, underscored China’s critical role as a massive and innovative market during a supply chain expo. Despite facing competition from Chinese firms like Huawei and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, Nvidia remains committed to the region, which accounted for 13% of its $17 billion revenue last fiscal year. Huang’s visit coincides with easing U.S.-China tensions, including relaxed rare earth export controls by China and resumed U.S. chip design software services. However, U.S. senators have urged caution regarding engagements with Chinese military or intelligence-linked entities. Analysts note that while the H20 ban pause offers relief, Chinese companies are diversifying supply chains to safeguard against future disruptions.
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Standard Chartered has launched spot trading for bitcoin and ether through its UK branch, specifically targeting institutional clients like corporates, investors, and asset managers. Announced on Tuesday, the bank positions itself as the first global systemically important bank to offer secure, regulated, and scalable access to these cryptocurrencies. Clients can now trade digital assets using familiar foreign exchange (FX) interfaces, with plans to introduce non-deliverable forwards trading in the near future. This move comes in response to rising demand for crypto assets among institutional investors. Chief Executive Bill Winters highlighted the bank’s focus on providing a safe and efficient platform for clients to transact and manage digital asset risks while adhering to regulatory requirements. This initiative marks a significant step for Standard Chartered in integrating cryptocurrency trading into its services, catering to the evolving needs of the financial market.
