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Bitcoin has demonstrated a notable resilience to macroeconomic headwinds, according to a recent report by crypto market maker Wintermute. Despite a general market downturn, Bitcoin's price decline was relatively modest, revisiting levels seen around the US election period, while traditional markets like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit their lowest points in a year. This resilience marks a significant departure from Bitcoin's past behavior during crises, where its losses were typically more severe than those of traditional finance indexes. Factors contributing to this stability include increased institutional interest through ETFs and Bitcoin's positioning as digital gold. However, experts like Alex Obchakevich from Obchakevich Research suggest that this trend might be temporary, with Bitcoin potentially returning to the category of risky assets as trade wars escalate. Meanwhile, economic indicators like the CPI and PPI show signs of cooling inflation, though new inflationary risks from global trade tensions could soon impact the market.
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Andrew Kang, the founder of Mechanism Capital, has significantly increased his stake in Bitcoin, doubling his investment to a $200 million long position. This move came shortly after he made a $100 million bet on Bitcoin, influenced by a post from President Trump on Truth Social suggesting it was a good time to buy. The Trump administration's subsequent announcement of a 90-day pause on its global tariff regime, which had initially tanked markets, led to a rally in both crypto and stock markets. However, this decision also sparked concerns about insider trading, prompting Senate Democrats to call for an SEC investigation into Trump and his affiliates. Bitcoin's price saw considerable volatility, with a 2% swing in a day, as markets reacted to the confusion over tariff exemptions. Despite the initial drop, Bitcoin managed to recover, trading flat around $85,000. Kang's strategy seems to hinge on the belief that trade war capitulation and a "Trump put" could reverse Bitcoin's multi-month downtrend.
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Bitcoin experienced a brief rally to $85,800, driven by partial import tariff relief announced by President Trump. However, this optimism was short-lived as the relief was temporary, and the potential for revisiting tariffs on electronics supply chains loomed. The uncertainty in US-China trade relations led to a dip in trader confidence, preventing Bitcoin from breaking above $86,000. The premium on Bitcoin futures contracts also declined, signaling a lack of bullish sentiment. The market's mood was further influenced by Bitcoin's correlation with stock markets, particularly tech companies, which dampened enthusiasm. Additionally, weak inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a decrease in stablecoin premiums in China indicated a cautious approach among traders, with little confidence in Bitcoin surpassing $90,000 in the near term. Despite a significant Bitcoin acquisition by Strategy, the market remained skeptical, reflecting broader market trends and trader sentiment.
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Jake Gallen, CEO of Emblem Vault, recently fell victim to a sophisticated scam orchestrated by a threat actor known as "ELUSIVE COMET." During a Zoom interview with a seemingly legitimate YouTube personality, Gallen was tricked into enabling malware installation, leading to the loss of over $100,000 in Bitcoin and Ether from his digital wallets. The scam exploited Zoom's default settings that allow remote access, a feature which can be manipulated by attackers to gain control over a user's computer. Cybersecurity firm The Security Alliance (SEAL) has been tracking this campaign, noting that ELUSIVE COMET uses social engineering to deceive victims into installing malware. The threat actor also attempted to expand their reach by hacking into Gallen's X account to target other potential victims. This incident underscores the risks associated with video conferencing platforms and the need for heightened security measures in the crypto community.
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Google has announced that starting April 23, it will enforce new advertising policies for cryptocurrency services in Europe under the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. This policy requires cryptocurrency exchanges and wallet providers to be licensed under either the MiCA or Crypto Asset Service Provider (CASP) regulations. The move is seen as a double-edged sword; while it aims to protect investors by filtering out unregulated actors and reducing scams like ICO frauds, it might also lead to enforcement gaps due to varying national licensing transition periods. Legal experts have noted that while these measures could enhance trust in the crypto ecosystem, they might also be overly restrictive, potentially stifling innovation due to high compliance costs and bureaucratic hurdles. Google's policy also includes a grace period where violations won't immediately lead to account suspensions, providing some flexibility during the transition. However, there's a concern that these regulations might favor larger players, making it challenging for smaller entities to compete in the European market.
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In an Ask Me Anything (AMA) session hosted by Cointelegraph, Mantra CEO John Mullin tackled community concerns following the OM token's significant drop. He reassured users that Mantra and its partners are actively working on token recovery, though specifics on buybacks and burns are still being formulated. Mullin refuted claims of insider trading and excessive control over the token supply, pointing to transparency reports. He also clarified the nature of the Mantra Ecosystem Fund, which includes investments from major players like Laser Digital and Shorooq, and is not solely composed of OM tokens. Additionally, he addressed a large transaction to Binance, attributing it to the end of a staking program rather than any malfeasance. Mullin emphasized Mantra's commitment to transparency and recovery, despite the unfortunate situation leading to the token's collapse.
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Blockchain analysts have uncovered significant token movements by major investors of Mantra (OM) before its sharp price drop on April 13. Laser Digital, a strategic investor backed by Nomura, was reported to have transferred large amounts of OM tokens to exchanges like OKX and Binance before the crash. Despite this, Laser Digital denied any involvement, asserting that the wallets involved were not theirs. The firm's denial came amidst reports from blockchain analytics platforms like Lookonchain and Arkham Intelligence, which tracked these transactions. Additionally, other investors like Shorooq Partners were also active, receiving tokens from dormant wallets just hours before the crash, though they too denied selling OM tokens. The situation has raised concerns about insider trading and the stability of Mantra's ecosystem, with exchanges like OKX and Binance noting significant activity and attributing the crash to cross-exchange liquidations. The incident has sparked discussions on the integrity of cryptocurrency investments and the transparency of major investors' actions.
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An investor recently sold a CryptoPunk NFT at a staggering loss of nearly $10 million, highlighting the ongoing downturn in the high-end NFT market. The NFT was sold for 4,000 ETH, valued at over $6 million, but had been purchased a year earlier for 4,500 ETH, which was worth approximately $15.7 million at the time. This sale underscores the significant depreciation in value for top-tier NFTs, with CryptoPunks' floor price now at about 43 ETH, down over 61% from its peak in October 2021. The broader NFT market is also experiencing a slowdown, with trading volumes on Ethereum and Polygon dropping by 53% and 41% respectively over the past month. Despite this, the transaction remains the largest NFT sale in the last 30 days, indicating some level of activity in the market. Meanwhile, other blue-chip collections like Bored Ape Yacht Club and Mutant Ape Yacht Club have also seen substantial declines in value, though the Pudgy Penguin collection has bucked the trend by reaching new highs.
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In the midst of macroeconomic turmoil, Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, has signaled its intent to continue purchasing Bitcoin, even after a brief pause in acquisitions. The company's latest purchase on March 31 added 22,048 BTC to its holdings, bringing the total to 528,185 BTC. Despite a recent market downturn that saw Bitcoin's price dip below $80,000, Strategy's investment in Bitcoin has appreciated by approximately 24%, yielding unrealized gains of over $8.6 billion. This move is closely watched by investors as an indicator of institutional interest in Bitcoin. Amidst global economic uncertainty, particularly from U.S.-China trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown relative stability compared to other risk-on assets, reinforcing its narrative as a store-of-value asset. Adam Back, CEO of Blockstream, highlighted at Paris Blockchain Week 2025 that Bitcoin could increasingly compete with gold as a store of value, especially with anticipated inflation rates.
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Max Giammario, founder and CEO of Kindred, argues in his opinion piece for Cointelegraph that the adoption of Web3 technologies is hindered by poor user interfaces and a steep learning curve, particularly when compared to Web2 platforms. He suggests that integrating emotional AI could significantly enhance user experience by offering personalized and empathetic support. Emotional AI could guide new users through their initial interactions with Web3, making the process less daunting and more user-friendly, potentially increasing adoption rates. However, Giammario also highlights the risks associated with this integration, such as the potential for data breaches due to the need for more personal information and the risk of users becoming overly dependent on AI companions. Despite these challenges, he believes that the benefits of emotional AI in making Web3 more accessible and user-friendly could outweigh the risks, fostering a broader acceptance and use of Web3 technologies.
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As the US trade war continues into the third week of April, Bitcoin (BTC) traders remain cautious, with the cryptocurrency's price action attempting to break through a long-term resistance trend line. The week's key macroeconomic focus is on tariffs, which could introduce volatility in risk assets, including Bitcoin. Despite a significant outflow of nearly $800 million from Bitcoin ETFs, some investors like Strategy are buying the dip, suggesting a belief in Bitcoin's resilience. The weakening US dollar might provide some relief for Bitcoin and other risk assets, while the global M2 money supply reaching all-time highs could historically signal future price increases for Bitcoin. Analysts are closely monitoring Bitcoin's price for signs of a breakout or a potential dip, with predictions varying from a possible push to $88,000 to a dip towards $81,000 before potentially reaching $95,000-$100,000. The market's reaction to trade war developments and macroeconomic indicators will likely dictate Bitcoin's short-term movements.
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The Mantra (OM) token, associated with a blockchain focused on tokenizing real-world assets, experienced a dramatic price collapse of over 90% within 24 hours, plummeting from $6.3 to below $0.50. This event has led some traders to label it as potentially the most significant project collapse since the LUNA crisis, with the token's market cap losing over $6 billion. Speculation around the collapse includes accusations of a rug pull, although the Mantra team has not confirmed this, instead suggesting that the price drop was due to "reckless liquidations." Despite the turmoil, Mantra has been actively expanding its operations, notably securing a $1 billion deal with DAMAC to tokenize various assets in the Middle East and obtaining a license to operate as a digital asset service provider in the UAE. This expansion comes amidst a backdrop of high demand for tokenized products in the region, driven by investors seeking innovative funding and capital securing methods through blockchain technology.
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The SEC and Binance have asked for another 60-day pause in their nearly two-year legal battle, citing "productive discussions" and the influence of the SEC's newly formed crypto task force. This request comes shortly after the SEC dropped lawsuits against other crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken. The discussions between the SEC and Binance are focused on how the crypto task force might affect the ongoing litigation. This marks the second extension requested this year, following a previous pause granted in February. The task force, established after the resignation of SEC chair Gary Gensler, aims to provide clearer regulatory guidelines and paths for crypto registration. The legal battle, which began in June 2023, involves 13 charges against Binance, including unregistered offers and sales of tokens and staking programs. The next joint status report from both parties is expected at the end of the 60-day period.
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Recent data from Web3 marketing firm Addressable reveals that crypto gaming and gambling campaigns are the most expensive way to acquire users with existing crypto wallets, with a median cost per wallet (CPW) of $8.74. This high cost is attributed to factors like higher churn rates, speculative behavior, and intense competition within these sectors. In contrast, decentralized finance (DeFi) and centralized finance (CeFi) campaigns are much more cost-effective, with a median CPW of $2.79. The analysis, based on 200 programmatic campaigns targeting an estimated 9.5 million users globally, also shows that during market downturns, attracting crypto users in premium markets like the US and Western Europe becomes significantly more expensive, with CPW increases noted between Q1 and Q3 of 2024. Meanwhile, emerging markets offer lower CPW but can experience extreme cost volatility. This data underscores the challenges and opportunities in different sectors of the crypto industry when it comes to user acquisition and marketing strategies.
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In a recent X post, crypto entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano highlighted that Bitcoin holders were the first to identify inaccuracies in US economic data, positioning themselves to benefit financially if their skepticism proved correct. Amidst ongoing concerns over President Trump's tariffs, Pompliano questioned the reliability of US inflation figures, job numbers, and GDP statistics, suggesting that the finance sector's reliance on government data might be misguided. He referenced US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's public doubt in the data's accuracy, emphasizing the need to listen to people rather than blindly trust government reports. This skepticism comes at a time when the US dollar index has seen a significant drop, and Bitcoin has shown resilience against stock market declines, leading some to speculate on Bitcoin's longevity compared to the US dollar. The discussion underscores a broader critique of mainstream financial analysis, which Pompliano describes as an "intellectual boondoggle" due to its reliance on potentially flawed data.
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Bitcoin experienced a significant recovery this week, climbing more than 7% and demonstrating strong buying interest at lower price levels. This resurgence has sparked discussions about the potential for other cryptocurrencies like HYPE, ONDO, RNDR, and KAS to follow suit, as technical analyses suggest bullish trends for these assets. The market's attention is also on the US dollar index (DXY), which is currently trading below 100. A weakening dollar could further bolster Bitcoin's position. If Bitcoin maintains its higher levels, it might enhance overall sentiment in the crypto market, potentially leading to a recovery in select altcoins. However, the bears are not out of the game yet, with potential resistance levels to watch for Bitcoin at $89,000 and $95,000, and for the other mentioned cryptocurrencies at their respective resistance points.
