Bitcoin price prepares for volatility as spot supply vanishes

Key Points

  • Bitcoin's onchain data reveals a consistent reduction in exchange and OTC balances, indicating long-term accumulation and a tightening supply.
  • With Bitcoin futures open interest near record highs and liquidity diminishing, the market is poised for potential sharp price movements.
  • BTC held on exchanges has dropped to 2.5 million, a level not seen since August 2022, reflecting investor confidence and reduced sell pressure.
  • OTC desk reserves are at historic lows, with a 19% drop since January, further constricting available supply and amplifying price volatility.
  • Negative funding rates alongside rising BTC prices suggest strong underlying spot demand, potentially fueling further price surges.

Summary

Bitcoin's recent price rally, despite low trading volumes and subdued retail activity, is underpinned by a stealth accumulation phase as revealed by onchain data. Exchange balances have fallen to 2.5 million BTC, the lowest since August 2022, while OTC desk reserves have dropped 19% since January, signaling a tightening supply. This reduction in liquid Bitcoin, coupled with near-record high futures open interest, creates a market poised for volatility. Negative funding rates in perpetual swaps, coinciding with price increases, indicate robust spot demand absorbing sell pressure, a pattern historically followed by significant surges. Notably, a recent instance saw BTC jump from $104,000 to $110,000 between June 6–8. The shrinking supply and leveraged market dynamics suggest that any forced liquidations could trigger explosive upward movements, even as the market appears calm on the surface. This setup highlights a mismatch between leverage and real demand, potentially setting the stage for a dramatic price shift.

cointelegraph
June 12, 2025
Crypto
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