Bitcoin treasury trend is new altseason for crypto speculators: Adam Back

Key Points

• FedEx signaled caution for the year ahead, forecasting a current-quarter profit below market expectations at $3.40 to $4 per share against an anticipated $4.06 per share, due to volatile global demand.
• The company declined to provide full-year earnings and revenue forecasts, citing uncertainty over U.S. trade policies, especially with China, impacting shares with a premarket drop of over 5%.
• FedEx is more exposed to China trade issues than rival UPS, with Trump's tariff policies and the end of duty-free status for direct-to-consumer shipments from China affecting trade air transit.
• Despite the outlook, FedEx reported better-than-expected fiscal fourth-quarter results with adjusted profit at $1.46 billion ($6.07 per share) and revenue at $22.2 billion, surpassing analyst estimates.
• Both FedEx and UPS face squeezed delivery profits as customers shift from fast air services to cheaper ground shipments, compounded by stalled industrial demand.

Summary

FedEx has expressed caution for the upcoming year, forecasting a first-quarter profit of $3.40 to $4 per share, falling short of the expected $4.06 per share, due to volatile global demand and uncertainties in U.S. trade policies, particularly with China. This led to a premarket share drop of over 5%. The company, more exposed to China trade than rival UPS, refrained from issuing full-year forecasts amid Trump's fluctuating tariffs and the termination of duty-free status for direct-to-consumer shipments from China-based retailers like Temu and Shein. Despite these challenges, FedEx reported strong fiscal fourth-quarter results ending May 31, with adjusted profit rising to $1.46 billion ($6.07 per share) from $1.34 billion the previous year, and revenue increasing to $22.2 billion, exceeding analyst expectations. However, both FedEx and UPS are grappling with reduced delivery profits as customers opt for cheaper ground shipping over air services, alongside stalled industrial demand. FedEx also announced plans to spin off its trucking business by June 2026, signaling strategic shifts amid ongoing market pressures.

Key Points

• Trump's Advantage in Iran Strike: President Trump utilized powerful "bunker buster" bombs in the June 21 US strikes on Iranian nuclear targets, allowing a quick declaration of victory after minimal bombing.**
• Trade War Challenges: Unlike the Iran conflict, Trump lacks a decisive weapon in the trade war, often bluffing with tariff threats, though he has raised average import taxes from 2.5% to 15%.**
• Risk-Taking Behavior: Trump's attack on Iran, despite potential retaliation risks, shows his willingness to act decisively when he perceives a strong advantage, contrasting with past presidents' diplomatic approaches.**
• Trade War Dynamics: In the trade war, adversaries like China are less vulnerable, using countermeasures such as export limits on rare-earth magnets, complicating Trump's manufacturing revitalization goals.**
• Market Reactions: Markets have adjusted to Trump's tariff fluctuations, with expectations of deadline extensions rather than drastic actions, as seen with the upcoming July 9 trade deal deadline.**

Summary

President Trump's military strike on Iranian nuclear targets on June 21 showcased his strategic use of powerful "bunker buster" bombs, enabling a swift victory declaration. However, in his ongoing trade war with multiple nations, Trump lacks a comparable decisive tool, often relying on tariff threats that some perceive as bluffs. Despite raising average import taxes from 2.5% to 15%, his adversaries, like China, counter with measures such as limiting rare-earth magnet exports, impacting US industries. Trump's risk-taking was evident in the Iran strike, a move past presidents avoided, capitalizing on a weakened enemy. In contrast, the trade war reveals his vulnerabilities, with markets anticipating deadline extensions, such as the upcoming July 9 cutoff, rather than severe actions. Analysts suggest Trump may delay tariffs further, potentially collecting significant revenue while avoiding market turmoil. His negotiations, particularly with China, remain murky, lacking clear demands, which could undermine his credibility. While Trump excels at exploiting weakness, as seen in Iran, the trade war's complexities and adversaries' strengths limit his leverage, leading to a cycle of bluffs and market adjustments rather than conclusive wins.

Key Points

• Stay Calm and Maintain a Long-Term Perspective: Financial experts advise against panic during market volatility, emphasizing the importance of a long-term view and avoiding attempts to time the market.**
• Keep Cash Reserves for Stability: Having cash on hand is recommended to provide comfort and flexibility during uncertain times, helping investors feel more in control.**
• Review and Rebalance Portfolios: Regularly check your investment allocations to ensure they align with your risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial goals, adjusting as needed.**
• Adjust Risk Based on Life Stage: Those nearing or in retirement should shift toward more conservative investments like bonds, while younger investors can maintain a higher stock allocation.**
• Diversify Globally: Consider balancing US and non-US stock exposure to mitigate risks, as non-US stocks may offer value and outperform during certain periods.**

Summary

As Middle East tensions persist, everyday investors, especially those nearing retirement, remain anxious despite a market rebound and a ceasefire between Iran and Israel announced by President Trump. Financial experts, consulted by Yahoo Finance, urge calm and a long-term perspective amidst volatility. They caution against market timing, instead advising to maintain cash reserves for stability, regularly review portfolios to align with personal goals and risk tolerance, and adjust allocations based on life stage—shifting to bonds for retirees while younger investors can favor stocks. Experts like JL Collins highlight the market’s resilience with a 13% average annual S&P 500 return despite recent turmoil, while Diane Harris stresses controlling personal responses through cash buffers. Christine Benz suggests diversifying with global stock exposure and using bonds to safeguard against downturns for those closer to retirement. The consensus is to stay the course with a balanced, diversified portfolio tailored to individual circumstances, ensuring resilience against geopolitical and economic uncertainties.