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China's 618 shopping festival, once a single-day event marking JD.com’s founding, concluded on June 18 after over a month of promotions starting May 13, involving major platforms like JD.com and Alibaba. Despite extended sales periods and deeper discounts, consumer spending remains subdued amid economic challenges including employment concerns, stagnant wages, and a property crisis. Retailers and the government have introduced subsidies to stimulate demand, contributing to a 6.4% retail sales growth in May, the highest since December 2023. However, year-round discounts have diminished the allure of such events, with many consumers like Xu Binqi and Eve Wang opting to buy only as needed rather than stockpiling during 618. While specific sales figures for this year are undisclosed, JD.com reported over 2.2 billion orders, and Alibaba highlighted 453 brands surpassing 100 million yuan in GMV. Analysts note that the prolonged festival helps sustain engagement but warn that pauses in subsidy programs could dampen June sales. Last year, 618 sales dropped 7% to 742.8 billion yuan ($103.31 billion), reflecting ongoing retail struggles. The evolving consumer mindset and economic pressures continue to challenge the effectiveness of standalone promotional events in driving significant growth.
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Crypto markets faced further declines on Thursday as major cryptocurrencies like XRP, Cardano’s ADA, and Solana’s SOL dropped over 1% in 24 hours, while dogecoin fell 10% for the week, erasing June gains. Ether also lost 0.7%, reversing earlier progress. The downturn coincides with heightened fears of conflict in the Middle East and a strengthening dollar. Despite the slump, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $389 million in inflows on Wednesday, and spot ETH ETFs saw $19 million in positive flows. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering a strike on Iran, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs and global tensions could worsen inflation, impacting consumers directly. With rates unchanged, the Fed seeks more data before cuts, adding to market uncertainty. Altcoins, seen as riskier, are often first to be sold off during macroeconomic stress. Bitcoin, up 13% year-to-date due to ETF inflows and dollar weakness, remains stuck in a range, neither reacting to risk appetite nor surging like gold amid conflict, according to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.
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Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is staging a notable comeback, surging 30% in the last 90 days after underperforming in 2023 and 2024. Four key catalysts suggest this rally could be the start of a longer-term trend. First, cooling inflation at 2.4% and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating a favorable macro environment for riskier assets like crypto. Second, institutional investors are pouring in, with $205 million flowing into Ethereum products in a single week in May and nearly $900 million over 16 days by mid-June, signaling long-term commitment. Third, the Pectra upgrade, set for late 2025, promises to enhance user experience, security, and cost stability, likely driving demand. Lastly, staking has hit a record 34.6 million coins (29% of supply), locking up supply and supporting price growth as investors prioritize yield. While risks like macro shocks or upgrade issues remain, Ethereum’s outlook appears stronger than it has in months, bolstered by easing inflation, institutional backing, technological advancements, and staking trends.
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Bitmain, Canaan, and MicroBT, which dominate over 99% of the global Bitcoin mining ASIC market, are establishing production facilities in the US to evade steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese imports, currently at 25% after previously surpassing 100%. According to a Reuters report, this strategic shift aims to mitigate the economic burden of these tariffs amid a thriving US Bitcoin industry. A University of Cambridge study highlights the market's oligopolistic structure, with Bitmain leading at 82%, followed by MicroBT at 15%, and Canaan at 2%. However, geopolitical tensions and tariffs could dampen US demand for mining rigs, potentially pushing surplus inventory to cheaper foreign markets, as noted by Hashlabs Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud. Additionally, Bitmain has faced US customs challenges, including a seizure of 10,000 ASICs in late 2024 due to ties with a sanctioned Chinese firm, resolved only in March. The move to US production raises questions about cost competitiveness compared to China, while the broader impact of geopolitics on Bitcoin mining continues to unfold.
