Duolingo Stock Is Overvalued, According to Wall Street. Time to Sell?

Key Points

  • Duolingo's stock has surged significantly, with a 43% increase in 2024 and an additional 47% in 2025, leading some analysts to believe it is overvalued with an average price target of $476 per share, below its current trading price.
  • The underlying business is thriving, with nearly 47 million daily users and a 40% year-over-year increase in paid subscribers, alongside innovative strategies like A/B testing and gamification.
  • Duolingo is expanding into new verticals such as math, music, and chess, leveraging generative AI to launch new courses rapidly, though this also introduces competitive risks.
  • Despite strong revenue growth of over 40% quarterly since 2022, the stock trades at a high valuation of nearly 30 times sales, prompting caution among potential investors.
  • A long-term investment perspective is recommended, balancing the company's solid fundamentals and market opportunity against its current premium pricing.

Summary

Duolingo's stock (NASDAQ: DUOL) has seen remarkable growth, rising 43% in 2024 and another 47% in 2025, but Wall Street analysts suggest it may be overvalued, with an average price target of $476 per share, below its current level. Despite this, the language-learning app's business is booming, with 47 million daily users and a 40% increase in paid subscribers. The company attributes success to user engagement through gamification and A/B testing, while expanding into new areas like math and music, aided by generative AI, which also poses competitive risks. Revenue has grown over 40% quarterly since 2022, yet the stock's valuation at 30 times sales raises concerns. Analysts advocate a long-term view, noting that while fundamentals are strong, the high price may deter new investors. Current shareholders are advised to hold, while potential buyers might wait for a more favorable entry point, weighing Duolingo's growth potential against its premium valuation.

The Motley Fool
June 16, 2025
Crypto
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