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The Federal Reserve's latest policy update reveals a cautious stance on interest rates, maintaining the benchmark range at 4.25%-4.5% for the fourth consecutive meeting since a December cut. The central bank's "dot plot" projects two rate cuts for 2025, unchanged from March, though a split among officials is evident, with seven now expecting no changes compared to four previously. Updated economic forecasts in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) raise concerns, predicting core inflation at 3.1%, unemployment at 4.5%, and GDP growth at just 1.4% for the year, signaling fears of stagflation. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted the growing divide among members, attributing it to differing risk assessments on inflation persistence and labor market weakness during uncertain times. The Fed's approach remains tentative as it navigates policy unknowns, including the Trump administration's trade and tax proposals, while markets anticipate one to two cuts in 2025.
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Crypto markets faced further declines on Thursday as major cryptocurrencies like XRP, Cardano’s ADA, and Solana’s SOL dropped over 1% in 24 hours, while dogecoin fell 10% for the week, erasing June gains. Ether also lost 0.7%, reversing earlier progress. The downturn coincides with heightened fears of conflict in the Middle East and a strengthening dollar. Despite the slump, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs attracted $389 million in inflows on Wednesday, and spot ETH ETFs saw $19 million in positive flows. Meanwhile, U.S. officials are reportedly considering a strike on Iran, and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that tariffs and global tensions could worsen inflation, impacting consumers directly. With rates unchanged, the Fed seeks more data before cuts, adding to market uncertainty. Altcoins, seen as riskier, are often first to be sold off during macroeconomic stress. Bitcoin, up 13% year-to-date due to ETF inflows and dollar weakness, remains stuck in a range, neither reacting to risk appetite nor surging like gold amid conflict, according to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich.
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Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) is staging a notable comeback, surging 30% in the last 90 days after underperforming in 2023 and 2024. Four key catalysts suggest this rally could be the start of a longer-term trend. First, cooling inflation at 2.4% and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are creating a favorable macro environment for riskier assets like crypto. Second, institutional investors are pouring in, with $205 million flowing into Ethereum products in a single week in May and nearly $900 million over 16 days by mid-June, signaling long-term commitment. Third, the Pectra upgrade, set for late 2025, promises to enhance user experience, security, and cost stability, likely driving demand. Lastly, staking has hit a record 34.6 million coins (29% of supply), locking up supply and supporting price growth as investors prioritize yield. While risks like macro shocks or upgrade issues remain, Ethereum’s outlook appears stronger than it has in months, bolstered by easing inflation, institutional backing, technological advancements, and staking trends.
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Bitmain, Canaan, and MicroBT, which dominate over 99% of the global Bitcoin mining ASIC market, are establishing production facilities in the US to evade steep tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Chinese imports, currently at 25% after previously surpassing 100%. According to a Reuters report, this strategic shift aims to mitigate the economic burden of these tariffs amid a thriving US Bitcoin industry. A University of Cambridge study highlights the market's oligopolistic structure, with Bitmain leading at 82%, followed by MicroBT at 15%, and Canaan at 2%. However, geopolitical tensions and tariffs could dampen US demand for mining rigs, potentially pushing surplus inventory to cheaper foreign markets, as noted by Hashlabs Mining CEO Jaran Mellerud. Additionally, Bitmain has faced US customs challenges, including a seizure of 10,000 ASICs in late 2024 due to ties with a sanctioned Chinese firm, resolved only in March. The move to US production raises questions about cost competitiveness compared to China, while the broader impact of geopolitics on Bitcoin mining continues to unfold.
