Good inflation news gives some relief — but the Fed’s flying blind from here

Key Points

  • September Inflation Data: Inflation in September was lower than expected, providing relief to policymakers and investors with softer shelter costs and cooling in key categories, potentially supporting another rate cut.**
  • Data Disruption Due to Shutdown: The ongoing government shutdown is halting key economic data releases, leaving the Fed with limited visibility into the economy until possibly early next spring, as warned by RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas.**
  • Tariff Impact on Prices: Early signs of tariff effects are emerging in goods prices like apparel and household furnishings, with economists predicting more significant consumer price pass-through by early 2026.**
  • Fed's Challenges: With unreliable data and rising tariff pressures, the Fed is "flying blind," likely to cut rates by 25 basis points next week while avoiding firm guidance, according to Bank of America.**
  • Uneven Consumer Landscape: Lower-income households are struggling, while higher-income groups, supported by wealth gains, sustain overall spending, complicating the Fed's policy decisions.**

Summary

September's inflation report brought a positive surprise with lower-than-expected figures, offering temporary relief to the Federal Reserve and investors as shelter costs softened and core services moderated. However, this may be the last reliable economic data for months due to the ongoing government shutdown, which has frozen key data releases. Economists, including RSM's Joe Brusuelas, warn that the Fed will be navigating with limited visibility, relying on estimates until early next spring. Adding to the complexity, early tariff effects are appearing in goods prices like apparel and furnishings, with predictions of broader consumer impact by 2026. Bank of America anticipates a 25-basis-point rate cut next week but cautions against strong guidance amid data uncertainty. Meanwhile, an uneven consumer landscape—where lower-income households struggle while wealthier ones bolster spending—further challenges the Fed's policy decisions. As tariff pressures build and data fog thickens, the Fed faces a bumpy path ahead.

yahoo
October 25, 2025
Stocks
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