September CPI: Inflation comes in lower than expected but holds firm near 3%

Key Points

  • Inflation Rate: Inflation remained at 3% year-over-year in September, slightly up from 2.9% in August but below the expected 3.1%, still above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.**
  • Core Inflation: Core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to 3% year-over-year from 3.1% in August, with a monthly increase of 0.2%, indicating a slowdown.**
  • Mixed Categories: Gasoline prices rose 4.1% monthly but fell 0.5% year-over-year; food and housing inflation moderated, while apparel and household furnishings saw increases.**
  • Government Shutdown Impact: The report, delayed by the ongoing government shutdown, may be the last reliable data for months due to potential quality issues, as warned by RSM chief economist Joe Brusuelas.**
  • Fed Expectations: Despite persistent inflation, markets anticipate a quarter-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the next policy meeting.**

Summary

Inflation in September held at 3% year-over-year, a slight rise from August's 2.9% but below the forecasted 3.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This rate remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, with core inflation easing to 3% from 3.1%. Monthly price increases slowed to 0.3%, driven partly by a 4.1% rise in gasoline prices, though yearly energy costs dipped. Food and housing inflation showed moderation, while apparel and household items rose, hinting at tariff impacts. The report, delayed by the ongoing government shutdown—the second-longest in U.S. history—may be the last reliable data for months, as warned by RSM economist Joe Brusuelas, who noted potential data quality issues ahead. Despite stubborn inflation, markets expect a Fed rate cut next week. Analysts like BlackRock's Gargi Chaudhuri see a slow disinflation trend, with progress in shelter and services, though goods prices are firming due to tariffs. Brusuelas cautioned that reaching the 2% target could take years, signaling ongoing challenges for the Fed.

yahoo
October 24, 2025
Stocks
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