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Summary
Stocks ended a mixed week with a rally on Friday, marking the final full trading week of 2025. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, and the S&P 500 remained nearly flat. All major indexes are within 3% of record highs as the year closes. Consumer sentiment, though slightly up in December, is significantly lower than last year, highlighting a K-shaped economy where affluent households fuel spending while lower-income ones struggle. Inflation data surprised with a 2.7% rise in November, potentially paving the way for further Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026. Big Tech stocks, including Oracle, Nvidia, and Micron, boosted market optimism, aligning with hopes for a "Santa Claus Rally" in the last trading days. However, concerns over valuations and persistent consumer frustration with rising essential costs temper expectations. Upcoming economic data, like consumer confidence, and holiday-shortened trading sessions will shape the week's focus, while Wall Street remains broadly positive on 2026's market outlook, driven by economic growth and earnings potential beyond the AI sector.
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Summary
US stocks advanced on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 setting a new record close at 6,909.79, up 0.5%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.2%, marking a fourth consecutive session of gains. Despite strong economic data revealing a 4.3% annualized GDP growth in Q3—exceeding the expected 3.3%—investors scaled back expectations for imminent Federal Reserve rate cuts, with odds of a January cut dropping. Precious metals, including gold and silver, continued their remarkable rally, hitting new highs and on track for their best year in over 40 years, while copper also reached a record above $12,000 per ton. However, consumer confidence fell for the fifth straight month, indicating persistent economic unease. On the corporate side, Novo Nordisk’s stock surged after US approval of its Wegovy weight-loss drug. Meanwhile, discussions around revising the Fed’s 2% inflation target to a range-based system emerged, and government spending increased despite a reduction in federal workforce under the Department of Government Efficiency. As markets head into the Christmas holiday, early closures and full-day closures are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
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The past year at the Federal Reserve was marked by a rare conflict between its goals of maximum employment and stable prices, echoing 1970s stagflation, and resulting in significant internal divisions over interest rate policies. Despite this, Chair Jerome Powell secured consensus for three rate cuts in 2025, though future chairs may face challenges if inflation remains high and the job market weakens. President Trump’s economic policies, including tariffs and immigration curbs, alongside his pressure on the Fed and threats to remove Powell, sparked fears over central bank independence. Tariffs initially had a milder-than-expected impact on inflation, but concerns persist about sustained price pressures into 2026, exacerbated by data gaps from a record government shutdown. The labor market showed signs of cooling, prompting dissents within the Fed on whether to prioritize inflation or employment. Looking ahead, the Fed plans a cautious approach with only one rate cut expected in 2026, as it navigates a muddy economic picture, fiscal tailwinds, and ongoing inflation above its 2% target. A new Fed chair, likely favoring lower rates, will inherit these challenges amid questions about independence and economic forecasts.
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US airlines are gearing up for a record-breaking holiday season, expecting an average of 2.9 million passengers daily from Dec. 19 to Jan. 5, a 1.5% rise from last year, according to Airlines for America. Domestic round-trip airfares are set to average $900, up 7% from 2024. Major airports are also bracing for significant increases, with New York and New Jersey expecting 5.7 million travelers (1% up), Chicago’s airports preparing for 4.8 million (6% up), and Dallas Fort Worth anticipating 5 million (3.2% up). However, the year has been turbulent for airlines, with economic uncertainty sparked by President Trump’s April tariff announcement and a government shutdown in autumn leading to temporary flight cuts at 40 major airports due to staffing shortages at the Federal Aviation Administration. Additionally, ongoing airport renovations in cities like New York and Chicago are causing potential delays, with authorities advising travelers to plan for construction and traffic congestion. Despite these challenges, bookings saw a recovery over the summer, setting the stage for a busy holiday travel period.
