Trump Tax Law to Add $3.4 Trillion to US Deficits, CBO Says

Key Points

  • Deficit Impact: President Trump's new tax and spending law will increase US deficits by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, as per the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimate. **
  • Revenue and Spending Changes: The law results in a $4.5 trillion revenue decrease and a $1.1 trillion spending reduction through 2034, compared to the current-law baseline. **
  • Health Care Coverage Loss: Approximately 10 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance by 2034 due to provisions like new Medicaid work requirements and funding limitations. **
  • Economic Concerns: Economists and investors warn that the growing budget shortfall could raise borrowing costs and inflation, compounded by rising prices from tariffs. **
  • Alternative Scoring: Using a current policy baseline, the law reduces deficits by $366 billion over a decade, a figure achieved through accounting maneuvers by lawmakers. **

Summary

President Donald Trump’s recently enacted tax and spending law, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” is projected to add $3.4 trillion to US deficits over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). Signed on July 4, the legislation extends Trump’s 2017 income-tax cuts, offers business breaks, lifts state and local tax deduction caps, and temporarily eliminates taxes on tips and overtime. However, it also slashes spending by $1.1 trillion while cutting revenues by $4.5 trillion through 2034. The law includes Medicaid cuts and new work requirements, leading to an estimated 10 million Americans losing health insurance by 2034. Economists warn that the expanding budget shortfall, already significant, could increase borrowing costs and inflation, exacerbated by tariff-driven price rises impacting low-income families. The Trump administration claims tariff revenues will offset deficits, though concerns persist. An alternative scoring requested by Senate Republicans shows a $366 billion deficit reduction over a decade, achieved through accounting tactics that minimize the perceived cost of tax cut extensions. This law, reflecting much of Trump’s economic agenda, has sparked debate over its long-term fiscal and social consequences.

yahoo
July 22, 2025
Stocks
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